816
FXUS63 KJKL 072257
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
657 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and noticeably less humid air will reside into Saturday.

- The next passing cold front will bring increasing rain chances
  to eastern Kentucky by Saturday night into Sunday.

- Cooler air will be reinforced across the region early next
  week, before temperatures modify back to above normal by the end
  of the period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2024

The forecast is on track with no significant changes of note. Will
forego sending out new zone forecasts, with just updates to the
NDFD grid database.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 450 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2024

Late this afternoon, an upper level low was centered northeast of
Lake Huron near the Ontario and Quebec border with an associated
trough south across the mid Atlantic to the coast of the
Carolinas, an upper level ridge centered in the Northern Mexico to
Southern Plains to Southern Rockies region with shortwave
ridging/height rises northeast to the mid MS Valley to Lower OH
Valley region. Meanwhile another upper level low was centered over
Saskatchewan with short wave trough south to the Central Rockies
vicinity. Multiple shortwave troughs were moving across portions
of the High Plains to the Central and Southern Plains.

Tonight and into Saturday, the shortwave upper level ridge moves
east across the area with a general trend of 500 mb height rises
into Saturday morning. However, the remnants of convection that
initiates in association with the shortwave troughs moving from
the Rockies across the High Plains to Central Plains vicinity
through this evening and tonight should reach the mid MS Valley to
Lower OH Valley around or a few hours after dawn on Saturday. The
shortwave trough will move east and or the convective remnants
should move east across the Commonwealth on Saturday arriving
toward midday to early in the afternoon. Some redevelopment is
also possible toward peak heating and at the very least, some
sprinkles or light showers could affect at least western
sections. Trends with this will be monitored and pops may need to
be extended further east across the area on Saturday afternoon to
early evening.

A more potent shortwave will move from the Upper MS Valley and
near the western Great Lakes early on Saturday and then further
east into the central to eastern Great Lakes and OH Valley on
Saturday night. Additional convection associated with this system
and near or in advance of the associated cold front that will
approach eastern KY should bring the best chance for showers or
thunderstorms late in the short term period late Saturday night.

Lows tonight will be below normal under surface and upper level
high pressure. Ridge/valley differences will likely be a bit
larger compared to last night and following crossover temperatures
near the 50 degree mark or even the upper 40s in some instances,
some typical cold spots were cooled a degree or two compared to
the previous forecast. Some upper 40s appear probable in valley
areas further from the deeper river valleys. Meanwhile, the deeper
river valleys should experience the typical climatologically
favored fog for this time of year. High temperatures on Saturday
will be near normal while moisture begins to increase as the high
at the sfc and aloft shift east and southeast on Saturday. A more
moist airmass, increasing clouds and some convection in the region
will lead to lows a bit more uniform and nearer to normal if not
a bit above normal in some cases on Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 545 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2024

Troughing will build in across the eastern CONUS into early next
week, with a reinforcing shot of cooler air to move into eastern
Kentucky, following a cold frontal passage on Sunday. This front
will bring us our best overall chance of rainfall through the
period, with PoPs peaking between 40 and 80 percent from northwest
to southeast across the area. Model guidance has overall trended a
bit drier through mid-week, with diurnally-driven slight chance
PoPs each day, as modest return flow ensues underneath west
northwest flow aloft. A cold front may approach by next Friday,
but given the timing challenges of smaller scale features this far
out, have stuck to the blended guidance, which only yielded
slight chance PoPs for the period.

Temperatures will average below normal through Wednesday morning,
with highs mainly in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Monday looks to
be the coolest day overall, with highs in the mid 70s, and
overnight lows in the lower 50s, with some upper 40s possible in
the most sheltered valleys. As the core of stronger ridging pivots
from the Desert Southwest through the southern Plains, warmer air
will build in over the Tennessee and Ohio valleys Thursday through
Friday, with highs returning to the mid and upper 80s, and lows
mainly back in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2024

Aside from some fog in river valleys with some reductions down
into the MVFR and IFR ranges if not locally lower in some cases
between about 05Z and 13Z, VFR conditions will prevail as sfc and
upper level high pressure dominates. Cumulus has developed with
daytime heating and mixing in the 5 to 7kft agl range, but should
dissipate by around 00Z if not earlier. Winds will average west
to northwest at 10 KT prior to 00Z, and then become light and
variable to end the period. Some mainly high clouds may arrive
toward dawn Saturday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP