784
FXUS63 KJKL 232055
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
455 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected from time to time through
  the middle of next week, especially during the afternoon and
  early evening hours.

- A few storms could be strong to severe this evening.

- There is a potential for severe thunderstorms again on Sunday,
  with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 455 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2024

A stalled, ill-defined frontal boundary is located just north of
KY late this afternoon. On the south side of the front, our air
mass is mild and fairly humid, with dew points running in the 60s.
Temperatures are running in the 70s, being held back during the
day by earlier clouds and precip. Never the less, it`s enough to
support another round of thunderstorms heading in from central KY,
helped along by a weak mid/upper level trough. Modest shear is
also present, and marginally severe storms can`t be ruled out with
the instability/shear combo, with Severe Thunderstorm Watch 293
continuing until 8 PM for our western counties.

The convection is expected to weaken as it exits east tonight.
Clouds will try to break up as mid-upper levels dry, but
radiational cooling after the precip will probably result in fog
and low clouds developing and lasting into Friday morning.

The fog and low clouds will dry up by mid day and sun/heating will
cause destabilization again. However, the currently stalled
frontal boundary will lift north away from the region as a warm
front, and the only mid/upper level wave to be seen in models
should have its main influence to our south in the afternoon and
evening. That being the case, despite instability, the probability
of rain appears to be relatively low Friday and Friday night due
to lack of support, and nothing more than a small chance (30%) has
been used.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 455 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2024

An updated long term discussion will be sent shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2024

MVFR conditions lingered some places in extreme eastern KY at the
start of the period, but VFR conditions were rapidly expanding
eastward as clouds break up. Sunshine is destabilizing the
atmosphere, and additional showers and thunderstorms developing
over central KY will move/develop east into the JKL forecast area
this afternoon. Coverage remains uncertain, and VCTS has been used
in TAFs from late today into tonight. They will bring localized
sub-VFR conditions, but timing and location is to problematic to
include in TAFs. Once the precipitation dies out tonight, fog and
low clouds are expected to develop bring IFR or worse conditions
for most places. VFR conditions are then expected to return late
Friday morning.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL