624
FXUS63 KJKL 270840
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
440 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The last round of severe thunderstorms are now exiting the area
  to the east with the threat for severe weather greatly all but
  over though there will still be a chance for thunderstorms into
  the afternoon as a cold front crosses the area.

- Following today, generally cooler and less humid weather will be
  in place over the next several days. Warmer and somewhat more
  humid weather is then forecast to make a comeback for the
  upcoming weekend along with our next area-wide chance of
  showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT MON MAY 27 2024

08Z sfc analysis shows low pressure moving through the Ohio
Valley with a cold front draped northwest of the area. A squall
line of strong to severe thunderstorms - along with embedded
potential brief tornadoes - has now exited the area well ahead of
the front. Lighter showers and a few embedded thunderstorms follow
the main thunderstorm line but will rain itself out over the next
couple of hours. This will mean little threat of flooding now so
the Flood Watch was also cancelled. Mostly cloudy skies with
patchy fog and generally south to southwest winds of 10 mph or so.
Temperatures and dewpoints are fairly uniform across the area
post storm - generally in the low to mid 60s.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict general troughiness through the Ohio Valley that
will be reinforced by a couple of shortwaves moving though the
region. The first of these clears out this afternoon but another
swings by to the north tonight. The small model spread supports
using the NBM as the starting point for the short term grids along
with the incorporation of the CAMs` details for PoPs and timing
mainly just through this afternoon.

Sensible weather features drying conditions as the bulk of the
rains, along with any fog and low stratus, clears out shortly
after sunrise. The front settling through the area then brings a
renewed chance for showers and storms moving northwest to
southeast through eastern Kentucky into this afternoon. Drier
weather follows tonight, though the valley fog will likely be more
prevalent along with a small ridge to valley temperature split.
Still some clouds around on Tuesday - mainly for the northeast but
a pleasant day overall with only the barest chance for a stray
shower - probably staying to the northeast of the area.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point consisted of
adjusting the NBM PoPs to include CAMs details for the shower and
thunder chances through this afternoon. The temperatures from the
NBM were adjusted tonight to include more terrain details on
account of a decent bout of radiational cooling expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT MON MAY 27 2024

The models, and their ensemble suites, are in decent agreement
aloft through Thursday before they start to separate into the
weekend. They all depict upper level longwave troughing dominating
the eastern CONUS through most of the work week before ridging
spreads in with a return to troughing late. Multiple shortwave
troughs will rotate through the initial larger trough during this
time. A lead shortwave dives into the area and passes through on
Wednesday. This is followed by a secondary one moving by the area
further east - quicker in the ECMWF suite than the GFS and also
favoring the northeast compared to the lagging GFS. This will be
the biggest difference among the models through the period but
they do get back in line later Friday. By Friday, ridging will
move back over the area with significant height rises. However,
this does not last long as another trough starts to impinge the
Ohio Valley from the Southern Plains on Saturday - potentially
rolling into eastern Kentucky on Sunday - again quickest from the
ECMWF suite. Though it was evident, the model spread was not
sufficiently large to deviate too far from the blended multi-
model solution of the NBM.

Sensible weather will feature a cool down, and less humidity,
through the middle part of the week along with some shower and
thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon. High pressure then
brings drying and more sunshine to close out the week and start
the weekend, though the next system returns shower and storm
chances to the area later Saturday into Sunday.

The main adjustments to the forecast was to fine tune the
overnight temps and lows for terrain distinctions Wednesday night
through Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON MAY 27 2024

The main aviation concern during the TAF window is upon us as
another period of thunderstorms with strong gusty winds are now
moving into the area. Still see a two to three hour window for the
line of storms to move in from the west through 09Z for most
places. Went with a tempo to IFR or lower and gusts to 40 kts to
cover this threat. Some storms may linger in the area through the
day on Monday, but much more widely scattered, so did keep some
VCTS around into Monday afternoon. Most places will see clearing
late in the day. Winds will be southerly at 10 kts or less until
the storms move through with significantly high gusts possible.
Then look for winds to become more southwesterly to west at 10 to
15 knots along with higher gusts later Monday morning and into
the afternoon. Currently some LLWS has developed from the
southwest at near 40 kts - clearing out by dawn.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF