Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 290245 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1045 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will remain seasonably cool through Friday
  morning, with one more night of near or sub-freezing
  temperatures and frost returning for most valley areas late
  tonight.

- A warming trend then ensues Friday afternoon and continues
  through early next week. Dry air and breezy west winds on Friday
  afternoon will mean a heightened risk for wildfires.

- PoPs start to creep back in from the northwest this weekend and
  continue to ramp up through early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 PM EDT THU MAR 28 2024

The forecast is on track this evening with the valleys starting to
open up a spread from the ridges under terrific radiational
cooling conditions. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the
current obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These minor adjustments
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening
of the zones, SAFs, and HWO.

UPDATE Issued at 750 PM EDT THU MAR 28 2024

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure just to the southwest of
eastern Kentucky and this is keeping the skies mostly clear and
the air mass dry. Lingering west winds of 5 to 10 mph will be
settling shortly following sunset. Currently, temperatures are
running in the low to mid 50s in the more open areas, and on
ridges, while the sheltered valleys have fallen into the middle
40s. At the same time, dewpoints are running in the upper 20s to
lower 30s, most places. Expect the terrain based temperature
disparity to build through the night with many of those valleys
reaching near or below freezing by dawn and frost a strong
possibility. Along the rivers and lakes patchy fog will likely
develop, as well. For the frost and sub freezing potential an SPS
will be issued shortly highlighting these concerns. Did also fine
tune the sky cover and add in the current obs and trends for the
T/Td grids with this update. These minor adjustments have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 304 PM EDT THU MAR 28 2024

Present surface analysis has high pressure firmly established over
the area. This has allowed for mostly clear skies across the area.
Upper-level northwesterly flow will limit afternoon highs a little
bit but highs are still forecast to climb into the upper-50s to low-
60s. Dry air associated with the surface high, will keep dewpoints
on the lower side leading to RHs in the in the low-20s to low-30s
through the afternoon. Fortunately, light winds and recent rainfall
will keep fire weather concerns on the lower side.

Upper-level flow continues to remain out of the northwest through
the overnight. A little shortwave working through the circulation,
responsible for the northwesterly flow, will interact with mid-level
moisture to increase clouds across the northeastern portions of the
CWA. This may limit how far temperatures fall across the Big Sandy
Basin. On the flip side, clearer skies will allow for temperatures
to fall across the southwestern portions of the CWA. Opted to lower
Monticello a few more degrees than guidance for this very reason.
Overall, overnight lows are forecast to dip into the upper-20s in
the valleys and low-30s for the ridges. Those temperatures will
allow for areas of frost, especially in the more sheltered valleys.

Friday will continue to keep surface high pressure in place and
temperatures will climb into the upper-60s to low-70s in a few
places. However, to the west, a shortwave trough is forecast to
develop off the lee of the Rockies and bring a change in the weather
pattern. As that surface low approaches, the associated warm front
will lift through the region late Friday night into Saturday
morning. This will usher in the regime of WAA and moist
southwesterly flow. Along the front, shower chances will increase in
coverage starting early Saturday morning and persisting into the
long-term forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 456 PM EDT THU MAR 28 2024

The period will start with large surface high pressure centered
off the southeast coast providing us with a continue warm
southwest low level flow with increasing moisture. Aloft, rather
zonal flow will be over the central and eastern CONUS, with a weak
shortwave rippling through it and supporting a surface low
crossing the Great Lakes. The cold front trailing from this low is
expected to reach KY Saturday night and stall. The proximity of
the front could be enough for a few showers Saturday and Saturday
night, especially in our northern counties, but GFS forecast
soundings show a cap and thunder has been left out of the
forecast at that time frame this go around. By the time the front
stalls nearby Saturday night, a deep upper low will be dropping
SSE into the southwest CONUS at the heart of a large trough. This
promotes a lee low over the high plains, increasing flow off the
gulf, strengthening the frontal boundary and letting it creep back
northward. Our potential for showers/thunderstorms will continue
in this scenario, enhanced periodically by impulses aloft.

The western trough eventually heads east along with the surface low.
The passage of the low to our north will send the boundary
through KY as a cold front, with the GFS and ECMWF deterministic
runs coming into better agreement for cold fropa on Tuesday
evening. Our highest POP and most significant precip is expected
with the approach and passage of the cold front. GFS forecast
soundings show an instability/shear combo supportive of severe wx,
and SPC has the area in a slight risk. However, it is still many
days out, and models will need to be watched for changes. Much
cooler air arrives Wednesday behind the front, with dry weather
by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT THU MAR 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as surface
high pressure slowly passes through the area. Sustained
west to northwest winds of 5 to 10 knots with a few gusts up to
15 knots will be noted through sunset before slackening to light
and variable. Winds begin to increase again around 14Z Friday
from the west with sustained speeds of 5 to 10 knots and gusts
upwards of 20 knots by late afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF


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