560
FXUS63 KJKL 190728
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
328 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather expected area wide from Sunday through Tuesday
  night.

- Rain chances ramp back up Wednesday into Saturday.

- Warm weather will be the story Sunday through Wednesday, with
  afternoon highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2024

The short term weather pattern will feature building heights over
the region today, with a positively-tilted ridge axis over the area
tonight through the daytime period Monday.

Widespread valley fog will burn off and/or lift into a rising deck
of cumulus clouds mid- to late morning. Models depict a fairly dry
environment but with some modest instability. Thus, it will be
extremely difficult to get any shower or thunderstorm activity, with
the best chance over the mountains along the Virginia border where
PoPs barely reach the 15 PoPs needed for mention of precipitation in
the grids and forecasts. Given plentiful sun and just scattered
cumulus clouds in the afternoon, expect a continued warming trend
with highs in the lower to mid 80s.

With the ridge axis overhead and the loss of daytime convective
heating this evening into tonight, expect good to excellent
radiational cooling conditions under clear skies. COOP MOS indicates
the most sheltered valley locations may fall into the lower to
mid 50s, with upper 50 on ridgetops. Valley fog can be expected
once again but likely not quite as widespread and dense as this
morning.

Monday will feature a few scattered cumulus clouds, especially
across the southern half of the forecast area, but overall
precipitation-free conditions. Highs will climb a few more degrees
into the mid to upper 80s.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2024

The period begins with shortwave ridging extending into the
Northeast states. This ridging will keep the weather quiet and warm
through mid week ahead of an advancing cold front, with good
agreement noted in the ensembles and deterministic guidance. The
afternoon high temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to climb
into the mid to upper 80s. By Wednesday, we see the leeside low that
develops Monday night will be pushing northeast into the Great Lakes
and Canada by Tuesday night. While there are slight differences in
the guidance during this period the overall pattern looks fairly
close.

It gets a little trickier across the Ohio Valley going into mid-
week. This is because the various ensembles and deterministic are
struggling on how far south and east this cold front can go given
it looses the greater upper level support and the low pressure
pushes northward further into Canada. Right now, it looks like the
diffuse cold front would arrive Sometimes Wednesday night into
Thursday. This would usher in better chances of showers and
thunderstorms, with around a 20-40 percent chance Wednesday and
50-60 percent chance Thursday. Now there have been some indication
in machine learning products of severe weather potential with
this system. If this was to occur it would be late Wednesday into
Wednesday night before better storms arrive based on the latest
trends. However, confidence is low given the better shear and
instability stay northwest of the area.

Past this the guidance becomes more divergent, but it looks like
another mid-level shortwave rides in Friday. This would lead to a
renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms going into the weekend,
as an area of low pressure forms along the left over boundary
mentioned above. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms
right now would be Friday at 50-60 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2024

Good radiating conditions have led to development of fog,
especially in the Kentucky River, Licking River, and Red River
Valleys, and the headwaters of the Levisa Fork. This fog should
grow in breadth and depth through dawn with VLIFR in some of the
deeper valleys toward 12Z. The fog may lift into or develop at the
TAF sites generally after 06Z and reductions there should be at
least MVFR or IFR at times. The fog will lift and dissipate by
around 13z-14z, leaving VFR conditions through the end of the
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...CMC