Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
797 FXUS62 KKEY 160252 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1052 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 948 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Water vapor imagery highlights a long wave ridge sliding east through the Great Lakes. The long wave trough formerly sagging into the Gulf of Mexico is progressing east into the western North Atlantic. CIMSS mid to upper level vorticity analyses suggest there is node a cyclonic curvature over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that pinched off from the trough formerly in the Gulf. The Central American Gyre continues to thrive underneath a broad anticyclone centered over the Western Caribbean. After nearly a week of convectively active evenings in the Florida Keys, the KBYX radar is echo free. There remains a few sheaths of light stratiform rain, although additional accumulations are not expected. The gradient between high pressure bulging southeast out of the Eastern Seaboard and the falling pressure in the Bay of Campeche will result in freshening breezes across the Florida Keys over the next 24 to 36 hours. Tropical: the last available visibile satellite images noted two cyclonic swirls over the western North Atlantic, one near 30N/70W and the other north of the Dominican Republic. MIMIC TPW loops also reveal these two swirls. These two features will merge over the next few days then get caught up underneath the building high pressure system. Within the past 24 hours, the model consensus has locked onto this feature with rather strong agreement. At 800 PM, the NHC introduced this system into the Seven-Day TWO, highlighting a 20% chance for development over the next five days. If a threat develops with this system the steering flow should drive the circulation west towards central or northern Florida and north of the Keys. We will continue to monitor. && .MARINE... Issued at 948 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution due to freshening easterly breezes. Small Craft Advisory may be required Sunday for portions of the coastal waters of the Florida Keys as winds increase to near 20 knots. From synopsis, moderate to fresh breezes this evening will gradually increase over the next couple of days due to high pressure building in from the north and falling pressures near the Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh breezes will continue through mid week with winds tending stronger especially across our southwestern and western waters. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 948 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 VFR and gusty east to southeast breezes will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals overnight. The very light streaks of stratiform rain should erode shortly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 88 82 89 / 20 30 20 20 Marathon 81 88 82 90 / 20 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest