Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
986 FXUS62 KKEY 160244 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1044 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1044 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 It was a very active afternoon across the Florida Keys as a reverse cloud erupted across the Middle and Upper Keys. Not only did some island communities receive up to 2" of rainfall, multiple waterspouts were reported. The light southwest to west winds combined with the heating of the island chain is what spurred this cloud line on. Despite the warm temperatures aloft, the solid lifting mechanism promoted good vertical growth in the storms, and occasional to frequent lightning was detected along this line. Looking more broadly, the disturbance off of the Carolina coast has been upgraded to Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight. Meanwhile, a wide ribbon of drier air is still parked over the Gulf of Mexico this evening. This drier airmass has slid a little farther south today, but has remained just north of the Florida Keys forecast area. The 00Z sounding does indicate that some of the dry air may had filtered in, with a decent amount of drier air sampled in the lower and mid-levels. Ample CAPE and minimal inhibition was sampled, but most of the outflow boundaries from earlier convection has since drifted well south into the Straits of Florida where KBYX radar is detecting isolated showers. For the remainder of the night, breezes will remain generally variable before becoming more south to southwest. Decent moisture will remain in place, and while some of the forecast area has been worked over, nocturnal showers could still develop before sunrise. Have decided to retain near normal rain chances. && .MARINE... Issued at 1044 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. Light and generally variable breezes will continue through Friday over the Florida Keys coastal waters. A developing low pressure system off the Carolina coast will generate a higher northerly swell off the Upper Keys for Tuesday and Wednesday. The low will deepen into an upper level trough and slowly slide south towards the Florida Peninsula by Friday. Unpredictability in the movement of this trough means confidence in the extended forecast is very low. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the TAF period. Overnight, showers may near either terminal, but confidence is low in timing and location, so have left out VCSH for now. Winds will remain generally light and variable through tomorrow morning, then will become southwest by the afternoon. Depending on the timing of the southwesterly winds, another reverse cloud line could develop. VCSH may need to be included in at least MTH`s TAF in later updates to account for this. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2023, the daily record high temperature of 94F was recorded in both Key West and Marathon. Temperature records date back to 1872 in Key West and 1950 in Marathon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 90 83 90 / 30 40 40 50 Marathon 83 91 82 91 / 30 40 40 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest