312
FXUS62 KKEY 151019
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
619 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 514 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024
The nighttime hours offered a little bit of excitement as the
KBYX radar picked up on some showers, and occasional lightning,
drifting across our waters. Even though things have tapered off
at this time, multiple lingering boundaries are apparent on radar,
so some spotty pop up showers are still possible. Other than
that, conditions are quiet along the island chain this very early
morning. Not much has changed with regards to the synoptic
pattern, and today is expected to look a lot like yesterday. As of
5 AM EDT, heat index values were already flirting with the 100F
mark. Therefore, another Heat Advisory will be in effect starting
at 10 AM EDT for the Florida Keys. It feels like we could issue
these with our eyes closed, but we won`t try that.

There may be some good news here. As previous discussions have
mentioned, guidance suggests the troughy pattern in place over the
southeastern portion of the U.S. may deepen off of the coastline
before retrograding back toward the peninsula. This solution is
the one that will result in more active weather around the Monday
night/Tuesday timeframe, but it will also offer a break from Heat
Advisories. The moisture surge coming with this will help build
in more cloud coverage, as well as bring ample moisture and a
larger- scale lifting mechanism to trigger showers and
thunderstorms. The catch is that some guidance still suggests that
this won`t be the case, so it is difficult to say just how wet
things could be. The takeaway is that we finally have a chance for
some relief, even though we may have to trade it for wet and
cloudy conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 514 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024
A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Florida Keys.
Ponding on the typically favored roadways will peak at the times
of the morning higher high tide in the Lower and Middle Keys, with
little tidal cycle relief in the Upper Keys. Other than these
minor coastal flooding hazards, are no watches, warnings, or
advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters.

From synopsis, light, and at times, variable breezes will
continue through Thursday across the Florida Keys coastal waters.
An upper level trough will amplify and slowly slide southward
towards the Florida Peninsula this. This will likely bring
elevated rain and thunder chances back to the Keys, although
confidence in the extended forecast is quite low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH today. A
period of southwesterly flow may result in cloudline formation later
this morning through this afternoon. Exact timing is still quite
uncertain but have given a reasonable first guess of earliest
formation with VCSH mention in both TAFs. Near surface winds will be
light and variable early, becoming southwest to west.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys weather history, in 2023, the daily record high
temperature of 94F was last recorded at Key West International
Airport and Marathon International Airport. Temperatures records for
Key West and Marathon date back to 1872 and 1950 respectively.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  92  83  91  83 /  30  30  40  40
Marathon  92  83  90  82 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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