Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
379 FXUS62 KKEY 140658 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 258 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Rains have mostly ended across the island chain after another round of thunderstorms last evening. Southerly winds have resumed and average 7 to 18 knots at the Reef. The rain cooled temperatures in the mid to upper 70s have recovered to near 80 for most island communities. Rainfall totals based on gauge and radar derived totals suggest widespread values between 2 to 3" in the past 12-hours. .FORECAST... Water vapor imagery highlights a positively tilted trough axis slowly lumbering east through Central Florida. A surface trough extends from Central Florida to the Yucatan, which will be the focusing mechanism for another round of storms this afternoon. The low-level vorticity analyses from CIMSS suggest the cyclonic curvature is at a lower latitude than previous days. So, does the line of storms kick-off a little closer to the Keys today? There is reasonable consensus from the suite of CAMs that an additional 3 to 5" of rainfall is possible today as the developing storms sag southward slowly through the Keys. A Flood Watch Remains in effect for the Keys and the Weather Prediction Center advertises a Slight Risk (15%) for Excessive Rainfall through Friday night. A pattern change is on the way though. The upper trough will lift northeast out of Florida Friday night and Saturday allowing a large mean layer ridge to take root over the southeastern US and the extreme western North Atlantic. Winds will shift around to the east and freshen Sunday night and Monday in response to the mean layer ridge and the tightening Central American Gyre over Central America. An extended period of fresh east to southeast breezes and slightly above normal (~30%) rain chances are likely Tuesday through Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Mainly moderate breezes and another day of unsettled weather featuring thundery squalls and episodes of heavy rainfall will persist today and tonight. Rain and thunder chances will decrease gradually starting Saturday. Breezes will freshen by Sunday night, with moderate to fresh easterly breezes expected Monday through Tuesday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. For the time being, frequent light shower activity has diminished but later in the TAF period we could see more periods of wet weather. Once timing confidence increase will include VCSH in the TAFs again. Near surface winds will be southerly at near 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1957, the daily record high temperature of 94F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 86 80 89 82 / 70 50 50 30 Marathon 87 80 89 82 / 70 50 40 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through this afternoon for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....11 Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest