552
FXUS62 KKEY 250920
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
520 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024
All is quiet along the Florida Keys this early morning with dry
weather and light breezes out of the southeast, even though radar
is showing a clump of light showers just offshore to the west of
the Everglades. This cluster has barely been crawling out into the
Gulf, so it should wear itself out soon and will allow for a dry
start to the weekend. Satellite imagery is showing some clouds
transversing the forecast area, but no dense or widespread cloud
coverage that would block any sunshine today. This weekend will be
quiet with the gentle southeasterly breezes becoming variable in
direction at times, and temperatures will fluctuate from near 90F
during the day to the lower 80s overnight.

The overall synoptic pattern starts to see a change during the
beginning of the new work week. The ridging that has remained
dominant over our weather here at home will see a shift in the
location of its axis, and this will lead to an increase in chances
for showers and thunderstorms. The question most difficult to
answer is when will the rain start? The most recent guidance is
reflecting a downward trend in PoPs for the first half of the
week, but the next couple of model runs will have to be monitored
to see if this trend continues. To keep this forecast package
relatively consistent with the previous one, 10% PoPs remain in
the forecast for Memorial Day and Monday Night, and 20% remains
from Tuesday onward, but all of this is to say that these
probabilities may change a little bit in future forecasts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024
Light to gentle breezes generally out of the southeast
to south will continue through today and tomorrow, and will
periodically become variable in direction due to the light nature
and effects of daytime heating. During the later half of tomorrow,
breezes will clock to a southeasterly to south direction and
modestly freshen as the dominant high pressure shifts its
position.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 347 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at both EYW and
MTH. Near surface winds will be near 5 knots and mainly
southeasterly, though may become variable at times.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys Weather History, the daily record rainfall of
3.41 inches was recorded in Key West set back in 2018. Rainfall
records for Key West date back to 1871.

In Marathon, the daily record rainfall of 2.54 inches was set on
this date back in 1970. Rainfall records for Marathon date back to
1950.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  90  81  90  81 /   0   0   0   0
Marathon  91  80  91  81 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV
Data Acquisition.....MJV

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