Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
722 FXUS62 KKEY 040216 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1016 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 910 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 An upper-level composite analysis this evening reveals upper-level westerlies prevailing over the subtropics within a progressive but weakly amplified flow regime. Light to moderate easterlies prevail in the lower troposphere over the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters, south of a broad ridge. At the surface, moderate easterly breezes persist, with sustained winds averaging 12-16 knots over water and 10-15 mph over the islands. Current air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoint temperatures mostly in the lower 70s. Latest base reflectivity data from the Key West Doppler Radar indicates isolated moderate to heavy rain showers (no thunder) moving westward primarily over the extreme southeastern Gulf zones. Data from the Key West evening radiosonde balloon revealed a seasonably moist and moderately unstable thermodynamic stratification with weak convective inhibition. However, mean low-level flow has been difluent across the service area since early afternoon, leading to destruction of old outflow boundaries and a dearth of surface lifting mechanisms. This setup may change, but probably not for several more hours, after land breeze circulations near adjacent larger land masses (Florida/Cuba) mature, leading to mean confluent flow over the Keys and Straits. the high-resolution convection allowing models indicate a modest increase in convective cell coverage over the Straits/Keys after about 0400 LT, which seems like a reasonable scenario given the current synoptic/mesoscale situation and trends. Therefore, we will reduce rain chances by about 10 percent for the remainder of the overnight period, with emphasis on the best chance for any measurable rain in island communities being toward daybreak. Both digital and derived forecasts are updated and available via normal ways and means. && .MARINE... Issued at 910 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for Florida Keys coastal waters zones. Available marine surface platforms have shown east winds averaging 12-16 knots, with gusts 17-21 knots. The Satan Shoal buoy indicates recent significant wave heights of 2-3 feet, and it`s probably about 1 foot higher in the Gulf Stream. An Atlantic high pressure ridge will extend westward across the southeastern United States over the next few days. As a result, gentle to moderate easterly breezes will persist, peaking during the afternoon and evening hours. The ridge will shift southward later this week, resulting in slackening and more variable breezes. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 910 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Through 04/24Z, prevailing VFR conditions are expected at both EYW and MTH. Scattered rain showers with moderate to heavy precipitation and isolated thunderstorms will develop and move westward from about 095/08KT. However, the chance for a sub-VFR impact at either EYW or MTH is too low to warrant inclusion in the TAFs. && .CLIMATE... On this day in day in Keys Weather History, in 1982, Tropical Storm Alberto intensified into a category one Hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, about 120 miles west-southwest of Key West. The maximum wind measured at the Dry Tortugas was 60 knots, or about 70 mph, at 600 pm when the center of Hurricane Alberto was less than 25 miles west of the Dry Tortugas. a 24-hour rainfall amount of 16.47 inches was recorded in Tavernier. 6.25 inches fell at Key West during a 24-hour period ending at noon the next day. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...Kasper Aviation/Nowcasts....Kasper Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest