Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
389 FXUS62 KKEY 180728 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 328 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A not so quiet overnight for the Florida Keys as cloud streamers with embedded showers have been moving along in a east-southeast flow. Surprisingly, even though we had no inhibition, there was not enough lift to allow for showers to achieve any lightning. That being said, not all areas have seen showers and in fact most of the activity has favored the Middle Keys and portions of the Upper Keys. Recent radar trends would suggest that the Lower Keys may see some showers prior to dawn. Strong surface high pressure centered off the New England coast continues to work in tandem with falling pressures over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. This is maintaining fresh easterly breezes across the island chain and surrounding waters. This is also keeping temperatures in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. .FORECAST... The forecast thought process is a little more clear in the short term but remains murky and complicated in the long term. For today, the Keys will be in between features with no mid or upper level support to lend to what we are already seeing develop. As a result, showers will be isolated to scattered, developing in the most healthy cloud streamers. By Wednesday a mid level short wave will pivot southwest from the Atlantic and move across the Florida Peninsula. At the same time, an easterly undulation will be sliding westward. The combination of which will lead to a little bit more lift but with a lack of a surface reflection. Thursday, a surface reflection of an easterly undulation will pass through the region but by this point the upper level support will have shifted further southwest. As such, rain chances will be held at 40 percent. Thereafter there is still disagreements with the models as to how features will interact with one another and where they will eventually settle. Models are hinting that the Central American Gyre (CAG) will produce another broad area of disturbed weather northwestward across the Yucatan and into the southwest Gulf of Mexico. As is the case currently, we will have to wait to see how this new potential feature plays out. For now, given that it looks like we`ll stay in generally easterly flow through the extended period along with ample boundary layer moisture, have opted to keep above normal PoPs. && .MARINE... Issued at 328 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Small Craft Advisories continue for all of the Florida Keys coastal waters today. Strong surface high pressure centered off the New England coast will continue to work in tandem with falling pressures over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. This is expected to result in moderate to fresh breezes today through mid week. An area of low pressure may develop mid week a few hundred miles north of the central Bahamas towards mid week and move towards the north to central Florida coastline. This may result in a slackening of breezes. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 328 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. KBYX currently shows showers moving from southeast to northwest, but it is difficult to say if any showers make it onsite to either of the terminals. Will keep VCSH in the TAFs for now, but TEMPOs may have to be added eventually to account for any deteriorating conditions. Skies prevail at FEW at 2k feet, but occasional instances of BKN at approximately 5k feet will transverse both terminals. && .CLIMATE... In 1972, during the early morning hours, Tropical Storm Agnes passed northward through the Yucatan channel. The outer rainbands of Tropical Storm Agnes spawned at least three, to as many as six tornadoes in the Florida Keys, including a F2 tornado in Big Coppitt Key, a F2 tornado in Key West, and a F1 tornado in Conch Key. Total damage was estimated at just over $500,000 (1972 USD). About 40 people were injured in Big Coppitt Key, making the Big Coppitt Key tornado the worst in the history of the Florida Keys in terms of total number of injuries. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 82 89 81 / 40 30 40 40 Marathon 89 82 89 81 / 30 30 40 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest