Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
873 FXUS62 KKEY 250234 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1034 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 825 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Currently - Deep layered ridging remains firmly in control of Keys weather with a broad surface through lower level ridge stretching across the Florida Peninsula. Aloft, the Keys remain within the descending branch of an amplified trough reaching southwards across the Bahamas and Cuba. While this evenings sounding indicated precipitable water around 1.4 inches, there was substantial dryness through the lower and mid levels with multiple subsidence inversion. The overall lack of moisture, dominant deep layered ridging, on top of a lack of lower level forcing, has resulted in a paltry smattering of showers along South Florida sea breezes this evening and nothing in the Keys. Day time heating has disrupted the wind field across portions of the forecast area resulting in some variability in otherwise light east to southeasterly breezes. Short Term Update - Deep layered ridging will remain the dominant force in Keys weather through the overnight period. The surface ridge will be nudged slightly southwards into the Keys and South Florida by a migrating trough much further north. This along with the the dissipation of earlier day time heating will result in light breezes becoming a more uniform light east to southeasterly. While forecast soundings suggest that lower level moisture may nose upwards a bit, overall background ridging, inhibition layers, and persistent backing flow will keep showers at bay. Expect overnight lows to range quite a bit from location to location due the weak flow allowing some locations to decouple and radiate. Dew points will remain in the lower 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 825 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 A broad Atlantic ridge stretching across southern and central Florida will maintain light breezes on Keys waters. Winds will become more uniform out of the east to southeast as the effects of earlier day time heating dissolve. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 825 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals through the overnight period. Surface winds will be light and variable, east to southeast. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest