Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
477 FXUS62 KKEY 190224 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1024 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 724 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Currently - An Atlantic pressure ridge continues to extend west southwestward across the southeast and along the Gulf Coast. This along with a very broad low inching northwestward across the Bay of Campeche is resulting in fresh to strong east to southeasterly breezes blanketing the Gulf of Mexico. The Keys are right on the edge of this squeezed flow. This along with residual day time heating resulting in fresh breezes across our area with winds tending stronger to the west and weaker to the east. The Keys reside within an inflection zone between anticyclonic flow to our east and cyclonic curvature to our west. Overall, the lower level flow across our area appears to be confluent and is likely contributing to increased lower level moisture. In addition, this evenings sounding indicated essentially no inhibition with ample CAPE. On the other hand, the Keys lie under the western periphery of a large and sloppy mid and upper level trough aligned over the Bahamas. This is contributing ample dry air in the mid and upper levels and is working against deep convection. Given the setup, it is not too surprising to see a number of active boundaries across mostly the Florida Straits, but only a small handful of thunderstorms. Short Term Update - The Keys will remain within a rather tight pressure gradient between the ridge to our north and the low in the Bay of Campeche. This will keep the Keys within a fairly moist and confluent a zone of fresh mostly easterly breezes. Meanwhile, the previously mentioned upper level low will creep a bit further westward through the night, but remain aligned to our east. Forecast soundings suggest inhibition will remain limited or non existent. This along with the moist confluent flow justifies at least low chance pops for the island chain. Despite the healthy ventilation, expect overnight lows to sneak into the lower 80s. This is likely thanks to the combination of old outflow boundaries and a slightly backed upstream flow. Dew points will remain in the mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 724 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The combination of a robust ridge across the southeast and a broad low in the Bay of Campeche will maintain fresh easterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Keys waters. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 724 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. Surface winds will be out of the east near 15 knots with 20 to 25 knot gusts. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest