Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
863 FXUS62 KKEY 130251 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1051 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1021 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Similar to the past couple of days, the convergence zone over the southeastern Gulf and South Florida sagged southward late this afternoon, then combined with a fresh plume of tropical moisture surging northward through west-central Cuba. The discrete cells earlier in the evening included storm motions greater than 30 knots, and although we did not sample any severe gusts, surely packed a punch. The torrential rainfall across South Florida this afternoon pivoted into portions of the Upper Keys this evening where gauge totals are now nearing 8", although rates are now below an inch an hour. At the peak, the gauge near the 18-mile Stretch/Card Sound Rd split measured 4.13" in one hour. Current radar loops suggest a few less thunderstorms but nearly complete coverage across the Keys. SPC`s low-level mesoanalyses products suggest strong south-southwesterly confluence across the Keys. Although we are getting worked over, the mean wind vector from the SFC through 10 kft is southerly at 25 knots. Thus, the tropical fire hose should continue to recharge the profile until the low- level ridge axis can lift back to the north. The ridge lift may not happen until later in the night. && .MARINE... Issued at 1021 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The pattern for the remainder the week will feature weak high pressure over the western North Atlantic and a frontal boundary stalled over northern Florida. However, the main weather maker will be a large cyclonic system centered over Central America. Mainly moderate breezes and an extended period of unsettled weather featuring thundery squalls will persist tonight through Friday night. Rain and thunder chances will decrease gradually starting Saturday. Breezes will freshen by Saturday night, with moderate to fresh easterly breezes expected for late in the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Stratiform rains and embedded thunderstorms across the Keys will lend to TEMPO MVFR CIGS/IFR VIS at the EYW and MTH terminals into the overnight. Look for improved conditions at both terminals by daybreak Thursday. Southerly crosswind gusts could breach 20 knots Thursday afternoon if the line of developing storms in the southeastern Gulf become as mature as they have the past couple of days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 78 88 78 87 / 70 70 70 70 Marathon 78 88 78 87 / 70 70 70 70 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Acquisition.....11 Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest