105
FXUS62 KKEY 151440
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1040 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024
KBYX radar has remained active for much of the morning. Mainly
stratiform rain has been ongoing across the Island Chain and the
nearshore waters to the north. To the south of the Chain, a more
convective environment has ensued which has resulted in two
Special Marine Warnings due to these cells indicating signs of
rotation. Across the far western Keys waters and out into the Gulf
was another shield of light to moderate rain with pockets of
heavy rain. The 12z morning sounding showed a layer of dry air
from between approximately 950 mb to 700 mb with plenty of
saturation above this. This can most likely explain why the Island
Chain north is having a hard time keeping the rain going as the
precipitation is falling into this dry air and evaporating,
especially over land. The wind profile shows veering from east to
southeast near 10 knots in the lowest levels to south to southwest
near 10 knots 900 mb and above. This can most likely explain why
we are seeing some of the cells over the Straits showing signs of
rotation.

GOES 16 Visible satellite shows a long stretched out area of
cloud cover extending from north of the Bahamas southwestward
towards the Yucatan Peninsula. This band of clouds when looped
looks to be starting to slowly shift to the northwest and into the
Gulf as ridging to the southeast over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba
starts to nudge its way northwestward. Due to the cloud cover and
rainfall, temperatures along the Island Chain have been hovering
near 80 degrees with a few locations in the lower 80s. Dew points
are in the lower to mid 70s.

There appears to be some sort of stationary boundary in place
across the Keys, perhaps just south across Hawk Channel because
breezes north of this boundary are out of the north to northeast 5
to 10 knots at the nearshore marine platforms. However, some obs
across Cuba are showing east to southeast winds. Going forward, it
looks like this boundary should continue to slowly lift to the
northwest through the day causing the winds to go back to the east
to southeast as depicted in the ongoing forecast as well as bring
drier air into the region as seen on Visible satellite imagery
this morning. Therefore, no changes are expected to the ongoing
forecast at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024
There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect
across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light to
gentle breezes this afternoon will gradually increase over the
next couple of days due to high pressure building in from the
north and falling pressures near the Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of
Campeche. Moderate to fresh breezes will continue through mid week
with winds tending stronger especially across our southwestern
and western waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024
Showers and thunderstorms have developed upstream in the Straits
of Florida and are moving towards the island chain. While rain has
remained mostly light over the past few hours, heavier showers
will likely move over the terminals in the next few hours. TEMPOs
will issued as necessary, as these thunderstorms will bring sub-
VFR, gusty winds, and possible lightning strikes near or over the
terminals. Outside of convection, winds will generally be from the
northeast to east at 5 to 10 knots, becoming east to southeast
and increasing to 10 to 15 knots tomorrow morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1887, the daily record rainfall of 3.57" was
recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  87  81  88  82 /  50  20  20  20
Marathon  88  81  88  82 /  50  20  20  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....NB

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