Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
105 FXUS62 KKEY 151440 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1040 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1040 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 KBYX radar has remained active for much of the morning. Mainly stratiform rain has been ongoing across the Island Chain and the nearshore waters to the north. To the south of the Chain, a more convective environment has ensued which has resulted in two Special Marine Warnings due to these cells indicating signs of rotation. Across the far western Keys waters and out into the Gulf was another shield of light to moderate rain with pockets of heavy rain. The 12z morning sounding showed a layer of dry air from between approximately 950 mb to 700 mb with plenty of saturation above this. This can most likely explain why the Island Chain north is having a hard time keeping the rain going as the precipitation is falling into this dry air and evaporating, especially over land. The wind profile shows veering from east to southeast near 10 knots in the lowest levels to south to southwest near 10 knots 900 mb and above. This can most likely explain why we are seeing some of the cells over the Straits showing signs of rotation. GOES 16 Visible satellite shows a long stretched out area of cloud cover extending from north of the Bahamas southwestward towards the Yucatan Peninsula. This band of clouds when looped looks to be starting to slowly shift to the northwest and into the Gulf as ridging to the southeast over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba starts to nudge its way northwestward. Due to the cloud cover and rainfall, temperatures along the Island Chain have been hovering near 80 degrees with a few locations in the lower 80s. Dew points are in the lower to mid 70s. There appears to be some sort of stationary boundary in place across the Keys, perhaps just south across Hawk Channel because breezes north of this boundary are out of the north to northeast 5 to 10 knots at the nearshore marine platforms. However, some obs across Cuba are showing east to southeast winds. Going forward, it looks like this boundary should continue to slowly lift to the northwest through the day causing the winds to go back to the east to southeast as depicted in the ongoing forecast as well as bring drier air into the region as seen on Visible satellite imagery this morning. Therefore, no changes are expected to the ongoing forecast at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1040 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light to gentle breezes this afternoon will gradually increase over the next couple of days due to high pressure building in from the north and falling pressures near the Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh breezes will continue through mid week with winds tending stronger especially across our southwestern and western waters. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Showers and thunderstorms have developed upstream in the Straits of Florida and are moving towards the island chain. While rain has remained mostly light over the past few hours, heavier showers will likely move over the terminals in the next few hours. TEMPOs will issued as necessary, as these thunderstorms will bring sub- VFR, gusty winds, and possible lightning strikes near or over the terminals. Outside of convection, winds will generally be from the northeast to east at 5 to 10 knots, becoming east to southeast and increasing to 10 to 15 knots tomorrow morning. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1887, the daily record rainfall of 3.57" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 87 81 88 82 / 50 20 20 20 Marathon 88 81 88 82 / 50 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest