Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
473 FXUS62 KKEY 110250 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1050 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1020 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The current radar depiction is in stark contrast to the vertical profile sampled by the 00Z KKEY RAOB. In fact, the RAOB was launched during the arrival of a relic outflow boundary, and probably underestimates the ML instability. The profile features deep southerlies underneath westerlies. PW was ~2.3" and there was plenty of CAPE and minimal inhibition. The CAPE profile is thick enough as the westerlies develop in the mid levels to not suggest a shear problem. Although the late afternoon radar loops featured arcing lines of showers and thunderstorms, the scope is nearly echo free this hour. Regional surface observations and CIMSS low-level vorticity analyses place a weak cyclonic node over the southeastern Gulf a couple hundred miles north of the Yucatan, and we can see the swirl on satellite. Meanwhile, South Florida is within the low- level ridge corroborated by the anticyclonic shower and storm motion and the southwesterly SFC winds along the Southwest Florida Coast. This places the Keys in rather strong low-level diffluence this evening, which has been destructive to moisture convergence. As South Florida cools, the micro ridge should bulge southwest and place the Keys back in confluent, albeit anticyclonic flow. The advertised 60% rain/thunder chances appear appropriate, well above normal and below the MOS consensus. The wind forecast remains a challenge. The gradient will be controlled by occasional convective episodes, so we went with a muted mean near 15 knots at the Reef by Daybreak. && .MARINE... Issued at 1020 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The pattern this week will feature weak high pressure over the western North Atlantic and a frontal boundary stalled over northern Florida. Although, the main weather maker will be a large cyclonic gyre centered over Central America. As such, moderate to fresh breezes and an extended period of unsettled weather will persist tonight through Friday night. Rain and thunder chances will decrease gradually starting Saturday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1020 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Diffluent low-level flow resulting in VFR at both terminals this evening. However, low-level flow will become more confluent overnight, coupled with an unstable, moist, and weakly inhibited profile sampled by the 00Z KKEY RAOB. By late morning Tuesday, or the early afternoon, a potent convergence zone will develop just to the north of the Keys, and VCTS is advertised at both terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 87 80 88 / 70 80 70 70 Marathon 81 87 80 88 / 60 70 70 70 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Acquisition.....11 Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest