Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
995 FXUS62 KKEY 180224 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1024 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Currently - Robust ridging extends from off the New England coast, through the southeast, and along the Gulf Coast. This along with a broad area of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche is generating fresh easterly breezes across the Keys. This synoptic setup has also resulted in a lower tropospheric confluence zone across our broader region. Meanwhile, there is robust mid level ridging just off to our north and a rather sharp descending branch between upper ridging over the gulf and troughing northeast of the Bahamas. Despite this, the lower level confluence and resulting lifting has just about erased any hint of low level inhibition. This has allowed a number of Cuban and Bahamian lee side cloud lines to flourish. Portions of the Middle Keys have, thus far, been the chief recipient of these fast moving showers. Thunderstorms have, however, been nearly absent. The fast flow, possibly with the aid of mid upper level cloud decks, have compressed the diurnal temperature range. Day time highs were in the upper 80s and remain in mid 80s this hour. Dew points have remained in the mid 70s. Short Term Update - Surface winds will remain moderate to fresh through the overnight period due to the continued tight gradient between the ridge to our north and lower pressure off to the southwest. For the time being, ridging will continue to dominate aloft. That said, the lack of inhibition, ample low level moisture, and confluent flow justifies holding on to at least low chance pops. Expect overnight lows to struggle to make headway through the mid 80s and dew points should remain in the mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The combination of strong high pressure across the southeast and lower pressure over Central America will maintain fresh mostly easterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Keys waters. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals. With that said, the environment will be supportive to scattered showers and possibly a rare thunderstorm. Any of these may deliver quick rounds of sub VFR conditions. Surface winds will be moderate to fresh out of the east. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest