Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
906 FXUS62 KKEY 140303 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1103 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1045 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Another evening of storms for the Florida Keys is coming to an end. Rainfall totals were greatest for the Lower Keys over the past 12-hours with values between 2 to 3". Stratiform rains will be coming to an end in the next couple of hours and the last squall is exiting the Upper Keys shortly. The most recent scans from the KBYX VWP suggest the veering southerly profile is returning as the low level ridge builds back. The wind forecast remains a challenge until these rains clear to the south, when the southerly breezes should resume. Unlike previous nights, this appears to be it for the next several hours, so we show decreasing rain chances in the derived text products. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday as we expect another round of storms in the southeastern Gulf to sag southward Friday afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1045 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 The episodes of showers and thunderstorms have wreaked havoc on the surface wind forecast, but once this swath clears the island chain, moderate southerly breezes will resume. The past several days featured winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the early morning hours, and we will stick with this general plan for the next 12-hours. From synopsis, mainly moderate breezes and another day of unsettled weather featuring thundery squalls and episodes of heavy rainfall will persist tonight through Friday night. Rain and thunder chances will decrease gradually starting Saturday. Breezes will freshen by Sunday night, with moderate to fresh easterly breezes expected for late in the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Stratiform rains should be coming to an end across the island chain in the next couple of hours. Rinse and repeat for tomorrow, featuring southerly crosswinds generally less than 20 knots in the morning, followed by showers and storms sagging southward out of the southeastern Gulf in the afternoon. Once again, TEMPO IFR VIS, MVFR CIGS, and convective wind gusts 30 to 35 knots are possible Friday afternoon/evening during the storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 77 88 79 90 / 80 70 50 40 Marathon 77 88 79 89 / 80 70 50 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Acquisition.....11 Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest