539
FXUS62 KKEY 131543
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1143 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
As expected, the Florida Keys and the surrounding nearshore and
offshore coastal waters are currently experiencing a convective
lull. However, deep convection continues in the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico just outside our CWA. GOES-16 visible satellite imagery
is detecting partly cloudy skies at most island communities.
Temperatures are generally in the mid 80s, with dew points in the
mid to upper 70s.

Surface analysis places a stubborn stalled front draped over
Northern Florida. The location of this frontal feature combined
with an expansive high over the North Atlantic continues to draw
in deep, tropical moisture from the western Caribbean. The 12z
sounding at KEY revealed a series of subtle weak temperature
inversions in the 975-875 isobaric layer, a veered south to
southwesterly 0-3 km low-level profile, and deep tropical moisture
all the way up to 500 mb. With no change in the overall synoptic
pattern, there is little reason to doubt convection should once
again blossom late this afternoon through this evening across the
Florida Keys. In fact, satellite observations support that the
aforementioned frontal boundary should slowly drift southward this
afternoon and evening, providing a bit of an improved environment
for large-scale ascent. All available mesoscale guidance supports
this evolution, and likely PoPs for the next twenty-four hours
looks like a good bet. Outside of extending the Small Craft
Advisory through later this afternoon in the western coastal
waters south of the island chain, no changes proposed to the
inherited forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1130 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Winds continue to overperform relative to any available modeling
guidance. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the western
coastal waters south and west of the Lower Keys, including western
Hawk Channel and the western Straits of Florida. From synopsis,
the pattern for the remainder of the week will feature weak high
pressure over the western North Atlantic and a frontal boundary
stalled over northern Florida. However, the main weather maker
will be a large cyclonic system centered over Central America.
Mainly moderate breezes and an extended period of unsettled
weather featuring thundery squalls will persist this afternoon
through Friday night. Rain and thunder chances will decrease
gradually starting Saturday. Breezes will freshen by Saturday
night, with moderate to fresh easterly breezes expected for late
in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
VFR conditions will continue at both terminals through approximately
00Z when CIGs and VIS will fluctuate into MVFR conditions as another
round of showers and thunderstorms approach the Florida Keys.
Keeping VCSH for now, but TEMPO groups may be needed later due to
the potential for periodic IFR conditions. Prevailing winds remain
out of the southwest near the surface, but will see changes as the
active weather moves through.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys weather history, in 1900 the daily record
rainfall of 5.04" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key
West date back to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  88  78  88  80 /  70  80  70  40
Marathon  88  78  88  80 /  70  80  70  40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through late tonight for FLZ076>078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ044-
     054-055-074-075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....DP
Data Acquisition.....DP

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