Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
539 FXUS62 KKEY 131543 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1143 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1130 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 As expected, the Florida Keys and the surrounding nearshore and offshore coastal waters are currently experiencing a convective lull. However, deep convection continues in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico just outside our CWA. GOES-16 visible satellite imagery is detecting partly cloudy skies at most island communities. Temperatures are generally in the mid 80s, with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Surface analysis places a stubborn stalled front draped over Northern Florida. The location of this frontal feature combined with an expansive high over the North Atlantic continues to draw in deep, tropical moisture from the western Caribbean. The 12z sounding at KEY revealed a series of subtle weak temperature inversions in the 975-875 isobaric layer, a veered south to southwesterly 0-3 km low-level profile, and deep tropical moisture all the way up to 500 mb. With no change in the overall synoptic pattern, there is little reason to doubt convection should once again blossom late this afternoon through this evening across the Florida Keys. In fact, satellite observations support that the aforementioned frontal boundary should slowly drift southward this afternoon and evening, providing a bit of an improved environment for large-scale ascent. All available mesoscale guidance supports this evolution, and likely PoPs for the next twenty-four hours looks like a good bet. Outside of extending the Small Craft Advisory through later this afternoon in the western coastal waters south of the island chain, no changes proposed to the inherited forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1130 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Winds continue to overperform relative to any available modeling guidance. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the western coastal waters south and west of the Lower Keys, including western Hawk Channel and the western Straits of Florida. From synopsis, the pattern for the remainder of the week will feature weak high pressure over the western North Atlantic and a frontal boundary stalled over northern Florida. However, the main weather maker will be a large cyclonic system centered over Central America. Mainly moderate breezes and an extended period of unsettled weather featuring thundery squalls will persist this afternoon through Friday night. Rain and thunder chances will decrease gradually starting Saturday. Breezes will freshen by Saturday night, with moderate to fresh easterly breezes expected for late in the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR conditions will continue at both terminals through approximately 00Z when CIGs and VIS will fluctuate into MVFR conditions as another round of showers and thunderstorms approach the Florida Keys. Keeping VCSH for now, but TEMPO groups may be needed later due to the potential for periodic IFR conditions. Prevailing winds remain out of the southwest near the surface, but will see changes as the active weather moves through. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history, in 1900 the daily record rainfall of 5.04" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 78 88 80 / 70 80 70 40 Marathon 88 78 88 80 / 70 80 70 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through late tonight for FLZ076>078. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ044- 054-055-074-075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest