Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
621 FXUS62 KKEY 181450 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1050 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1034 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024 Water vapor imagery highlights a large, mean-layer ridge centered over the Western Caribbean and the Bahamas. A slightly squashed surface high stretches west-northwest through the Bahamas into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The 12Z KKEY RAOB sampled a dry and inhibited profile. Similar to the past five days, a hot and humid afternoon is underway. Temperatures are close to 90 and dewpoints are touching 80. These combinations will result in heat indices in the 100s this afternoon, and a Heat Advisory is in effect. The forecast calls for highs in the lower to mid 90s and nil rain chances. Sandbar venturers should expect SSTs in the upper 80s to near 90. Stay cool and hydrated. && .MARINE... Issued at 1034 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024 The western extent of a low-level ridge axis extends west- northwest through the Bahamas and across the Keys. Southeast breezes will tend to peak and lull overnight through Sunday as the heating and cooling of South Florida and Cuba modulate the local wind forecast. There may be a break in the rain-free conditions Sunday night through Tuesday, followed by variable breezes Tuesday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1034 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024 VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow morning at EYW and MTH. Latest hi-res model guidance is showing the risk for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop mainly well north of the Island Chain overnight. Right now, this activity looks to remain north and doesn`t pose a threat to the terminals, though, we will continue to monitor. Therefore, VCSH was left out of the TAF for now. Surface winds will oscillate between south southeast and east southeast over the course of the TAF period, remaining between 6 to 12 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1994, the daily record rainfall of 2.52" was recorded in Marathon. Rainfall records date back to 1950. OF NOTE In 2006, WFO Key West officially changed its identifier from EYW to KEY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 82 92 79 / 0 10 20 30 Marathon 91 83 91 80 / 10 10 20 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest