Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
294 FXUS62 KKEY 210223 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1023 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Currently - The synoptic setup this evening is fairly complicated. The local pressure gradient is enhanced by the combination of an Atlantic ridge that extends through the southeastern United States and persistent troughing along Central America. Meanwhile, a surface through mid level inverted trough is embedded within the through mid level. This trough was the result of a large upper cut off low that is now centered in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This inverted trough has resulted in a weakening of the pressure gradient in and around Florida and the Bahamas, however, this decrease is most prominent to our north. As a result, local winds remain moderate to fresh out of the east. Satellite imagery indicates a ribbon of drier air remains wrapped around the periphery of the trough. The combination of the weaker steering flow and drier and is likely contributing to diminished shower and thunderstorm activity. With that said, this evenings sounding did indicate, not surprisingly, considerable CAPE, but with limited moisture through the lower levels. Short Term Update - Broad troughing will continue to linger across Central America and will try to maintain moderate to fresh easterly breezes across the Keys. The inverted trough to north northeast will continue to drive west northwestward towards the southeast Atlantic Coast and may result in a subtle decrease in breezes overnight. The combination of lower level drier air but broad lower to mid level troughing will continue to dominate local weather. Expect a chance for showers and thunderstorm activity due to CAPE remaining plentiful and inhibition limited or nonexistent. Aside from convective influences, expect overnight lows near 80 with dew points remaining in the mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Broad low pressure will continue to linger across Central America. While there is an Atlantic ridge stretching through the southeastern United States, an inverted trough is embedded within its southern flank and has contributed to a weakening pressure gradient. However, much of this decrease will be north of our area. As a result, surface winds will be moderate out of the east. A slight downward trend is expected as the inverted trough pulls closer to the Florida Peninsula. Only minor adjustments made in the evening marine update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals through the night. With that said, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the broader area and may impact the terminals with relatively short spells of sub VFR conditions. Surface winds will be out of the east at 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 15 to 20- knots. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest