406
FXUS62 KKEY 281439
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1039 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024
It has been a beautiful start to Friday across the Florida Keys
this morning. GOES-16 visible satellite imagery depicts scattered
swaths of high, wispy cirrus with isolated patches of shallow
cumulus below across our area. KBYX radar has and is clear around
the island chain at this time with some showers south of western
Cuba the only notable precipitation feature at this time. A ridge
axis analyzed across Central Florida has resulted in light to
gentle east to southeasterly breezes along the Reef with more
southerly flow located closer to South Florida. Temperatures along
the island chain have already slid into the upper 80s with moist
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s.

The short term forecast calls for conditions a touch drier than
the last few days. While this morning`s KKEY sounding has a
decent PW value of 1.78 inches, a chaotic mid level wind profile
mixed with unimpressive low level lapse rates will help keep a
damper on convective development today. A lack of shower activity
and cloud cover will allow for temperatures to reach highs into
the lower 90s this afternoon. Slight chance PoPs are still held
onto today both due to the time of year and a convective flare up
south of western Cuba that could point outflow boundaries towards
the Keys later this afternoon and evening. No changes to the
forecast are needed at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, the
low level ridge axis currently across the Florida Keys will shift
north today through Saturday. As a result, light to gentle breezes
will become easterly Friday night and Saturday. Gentle to
moderate east to southeast breezes will persist Saturday night
through Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024
VFR will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through the afternoon.
Afternoon thunderstorms will be enhanced over western Cuba,
suggesting convective outflows will spread northward late this
afternoon and early evening. The stable and relatively dry boundary
layer near the Keys will not be conducive for maintenance of these
storms as they move north. We will reassess at 18Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1909, the daily record rainfall of 3.87" was
recorded in Key West. Rainfall records date back to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  92  84  91  83 /  20  20  30  40
Marathon  91  83  90  82 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...JAM
Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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