Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
164 FXUS62 KKEY 210256 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1056 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1055 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Convection earlier in the day quickly wound down by the mid afternoon and by sunset nearly all the convection had cleared out from the Florida Keys coastal waters. Of note, Marathon International Airport shattered their daily precipitation record with just over 7 inches. Once the convective influences on winds died down, the winds clocked around from the west and northwest. Despite the wet and stormy day today, temperatures rebounded in the late afternoon and are have only fallen down into the lower 80s. Dew points are a little more reasonable with values in the lower to mid 70s as opposed to upper 70s to near 80. As mentioned previously, KBYX radar is convection free in our immediate forecast area. There is ongoing activity out across the Bahamas and moving away from our area. Looking at CIMSS analysis, there is still a spoke of vorticity that has yet to pivot through the area. Hi-res CAMs indicate that as this spoke pushes through overnight that new convection could fire, mainly in our western waters. However, looking at infrared satellite imagery, there is no evidence of any new convection firing yet along the west coast of Florida. That is not to say it still can`t happen but it calls into question how likely we are to see redevelopment overnight. Pros: there is a spoke of low to mid- level vorticity, i.e. source of lift, progged to swing through and there is still over 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Cons: There is much drier air which has resulted in a lower precipitable water value from 12 hours ago and many of the boundaries has been either pushed out or washed out. Therefore, reluctant to change PoPs from low end chance (30 percent), but it remains to be seen if this is too generous. && .MARINE... Issued at 1055 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Thunderstorm coverage has all but dissipated and breezes have clocked around to the west and northwest. Another round of showers and thunderstorms may develop overnight but with less coverage expected. Tuesday through Wednesday, breezes will gradually shift to the east as high pressure in the western North Atlantic builds back in across the region. Gentle east to southeast breezes will resume Friday through Saturday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR conditions will likely prevail through the overnight and into Tuesday. Convection may redevelop overnight but stay to the west of the terminals. Light and variable winds will become northwest overnight and then return to light and variable after dawn Tuesday. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest