Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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547
FXUS62 KKEY 241834
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
234 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

We have enjoyed a rather pleasant day across the Florida Keys.
A poorly defined low level ridge extends across from the eastern
Gulf of Mexico into the western North Atlantic. This coupled with
a weak surface high pressure, is making with light and at times
variable winds for the island chain. It is also providing the area
with dry air and keeping most of the clouds and rain at bay.
Temperatures generally range from the mid 80s to near 90 with dew
points in the lower 70s as of 1 pm.

.FORECAST...
The forecast thought process remains unchanged this afternoon. The
aforementioned low level ridge will remain broad and weak as it
sits across the Gulf of Mexico, southeast U.S., and western
Atlantic. This will continue to provide a source of subsidence
across the region which will greatly inhibit our rain chances
through the upcoming holiday weekend. That said, any boundaries
that manage to collide with enough gusto could spark off a few
showers, similar to this morning out over the deep Gulf waters of
our CWA. In addition, any daily convection that develops over
the mainland could drift southward enough to graze the Upper Keys
at times.

The trend beyond the Memorial Day weekend looks to remain dry.
Models are showing the deep dry air persisting now into at least
Tuesday morning and there are hints that it could stubbornly hold
out even longer. If we can get the deeper easterly flow that is
advertise, eventually moisture from the western Atlantic will
pivot towards our area and allow for some deeper showers and even
a few thunderstorms. For now did not change the going forecast of
20 percent PoPs Tuesday and beyond. However, note that it could be
overdone and may need to be lowered as we get closer.
Temperatures through the period look to remain near 90 during the
daytime and around 80 with a few locations in the interior of the
larger islands dipping even below mid 70s. Dew points currently in
the lower 70s do look to be trending upward for next week. This
may mean that a risk for heat- related illnesses will return next
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Light to gentle east to southeast breezes will
continue through the end of the week as high pressure will remain
in place. During the later half of Sunday, breezes will clock to a
southeasterly to south direction and modestly freshen as the high
pressure shifts its position. A threat for isolated thunderstorms
returns as early as Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at both EYW and
MTH. Near surface winds will be near 5 knots and southeasterly
becoming light and variable this evening into tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  81  89  81  89 /   0   0   0   0
Marathon  81  89  81  89 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP

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