Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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FXUS62 KKEY 250913
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
513 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Currently - Surface through lower level Atlantic ridging extends
southwestwards along the coast and into the Gulf of Mexico. There
is an upper level trough anchored along the coast and is
producing some embedded troughing just off the Atlantic Coast, but
is having little direct effect on our area. An lower level trough
has passed west of our forecast area. However, the surface flow
remains moderate out of the northeast to east and deep layered
moisture remains high with little to no inhibition. As a result,
scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms have been able
to persist overnight, affecting many island locations.

Forecast - Over the next several days rain chances are expected to
taper back to low to slight chance as the ridge to our north
strengthens some and slightly drier lower level air begins to
filter in. Given current radar trends, will up pops to mid to
high chance, particularly for early today. Expect high
temperatures to be seasonably warm with dew points in the lower to
mid 70s.

Early next week a complex of cut off lows will retrograde towards
and into Florida, dragging with it a broad lower level reflection.
The associated pooled moisture and confluent flow will result in
an upward trend in shower activity through the first half of the
week. Wind will trend downwards as the ridge extending in to the
eastern United States weakens and pivots slightly north.

Through mid week and into late week, the lower level Atlantic
ridge will gradually realign further south, with the ridge
extending westward across Florida. The environment is expected
to remain seasonably moist and unstable and often with little to
no inhibition, justifying holding on to low chance precipitation
and steady temperatures and humidity.

&&

.MARINE...
An Atlantic ridge extending southwestward across the eastern
United States and into the Gulf of Mexico will maintain moderate
to fresh mainly easterly breezes across the Keys over the next
couple of days. Winds will peak in the evening and overnight and
lull in the day. Cautions may be periodically required for
portions of Keys waters through this period. Winds will then
trend downwards next week as the ridge weakens and pivots slightly
further north.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals
through 06z/26th. Overall, shower activity has picked up overnight
with an occasional thunderstorm, therefore have opted to include
VCSH through early afternoon when dry air is expected to move into
the island chain from the east. Otherwise, winds out of the east
will be sustained from 11 to 14 knots with occasional gusts from 16
to 20 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1992, the daily record rainfall of 5.14 inches was
recorded in Key West. This is also the wettest day ever recorded in
June. Rainfall records date back to 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....Williams

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