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000
FXUS62 KKEY 080916
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
516 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 515 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023
The overnight hours have been more active than previous nights
with convective activity. KBYX radar currently detects a cluster
of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern portion of our waters.
Rainfall has been torrential in the strongest activity as
precipitation estimates from KAMX (confirmed by personal rain
gages) report somewhere between 1 to 2 inches in less than an hour
for portions of the Upper Keys. A handful of Marine Weather
Statements have been issued following this activity as gusts up to
28 knots have been observed on offshore marine observation
platforms. Outside of convection, gentle to occasionally moderate
breezes are observed to be currently out of the south to
southwest. Temperatures across the island chain have settled
around the upper 70s to lower 80s. Areas that have or are
currently seeing precipitation have temperatures sunken down into
the mid 70s.

Today looks like another shot at enhanced rain chances with a
similar synoptic set up but a more favorable mesoscale
environment than yesterday. The Keys continue to be squeezed between
an upper-level trough in the Gulf of Mexico and a lower- to mid-
level ridge nosing across southeastern Cuba. This spans a wide
area of confluence across our area to help promote convective
development. Yesterday evening`s sounding showed that we were
still lacking a deep layer of moisture to fuel showers. Winds have
since freshened and showers and thunderstorms triggered off of
boundaries originating off of Cuba earlier tonight have flourished
and marched through the Straits and into the Middle and Upper
Keys. This is a decent sign that ample moisture is now at the
atmosphere`s disposal for more rounds of showers later today and
tonight.

This weekend, winds will slacken as the trough inches east across
the Florida Peninsula. As we lose our flow, rain chances will also
return to just under normal for this time of year. By the start of
next week, the trough will start to weaken and lift to the north.
As a result, the ridge will slide in from the south freshening
our winds Sunday evening and bringing in a fresh patch of moisture
to the area with possibly enhanced rain chances to start the
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 515 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. A Coastal Flood
Statement is in effect for the Bayside communities of the Upper
and Middle Keys, and boaters should expect less clearance under
lower fixed bridges, particularly during times of high tide. From
synopsis, an upper- level trough in the Gulf of Mexico and a
lower- to mid- level ridge draped across Cuba will bring gentle to
occasionally moderate southwest breezes to the Florida Keys
coastal waters today through Friday. Breezes will slacken and
become variable at times at the start of the weekend as the trough
edges eastward across the Florida Peninsula. Sunday evening, this
trough will start to weaken and retreat north allowing the ridge
to nose across the Bahamas and freshen southerly breezes.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023
Showers and thunderstorms have shifted east of the island terminals
for now. Re-development is expected later this morning and
afternoon, though exact timing is uncertain. Therefore, mentions of
VCSH will be added in future amendments. Any passing convection
will bring the potential for sub MVFR conditions. Outside of
showers and thunderstorms, winds will generally be southerly this
morning, shifting more to the southwest through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1966, Hurricane Alma moved north off of Cuba, intensifying to cat
3 and passing about 35 miles west of Key West. Dry Tortugas measured
sustained winds of 125 mph, while Key West measured winds of 60
mph with gusts to 70 mph. This is the only Hurricane to directly
affect the Keys during the month of June in the last hundred
years.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  88  78  88  78 /  50  50  30  20
Marathon  89  78  90  79 /  50  50  30  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...JAM
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....LIW

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