Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
020 FXUS62 KKEY 220825 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 425 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Earlier radiational cooling due to slack breezes and dew points in the 40s allowed for some island locations to radiate deep into the 50s. Through the night, the effects of day time heating have eased back allowing light breezes to establish themselves across the area. These winds, ranging northeast to easterly, are being driven by a weak high centered over the Florida Peninsula. The steady flow has largely washed out earlier radiational cooling, and temperatures are now broadly in the lower 60s with dew points also pushing up into the mid 50s. Stable post cold frontal conditions prevail with no precipitation detected and only patchy stratocumulus over the Florida Straits. Through the remainder of the weekend, the previously mentioned high will push out into the Atlantic allowing for light to gentle mostly easterly breezes across the area. Nearly zonal flow aloft and the lower to mid level ridge aligned a bit to our south will contribute to continued stable conditions. Rain chances will remain nil with mostly clear skies. Expect temperatures to trend upwards to near or slightly above normal. Late this weekend, the steering flow will strengthen modestly while shifting further southeasterly and help to push dew points into the upper 60s. The forecast becomes rather murky through the first half of next week. Guidance suggests that upper troughing will amplify over the eastern United States while a southern stream trough swings across the Gulf and through our area. This will contribute to falling heights and a marked increase in deep layered moisture. The lower to mid level cyclonic flow around the mid latitude trough will remain well to our north and the Keys will remain in a zone of sloppy ridging. There is a window for upper level convective support heading towards mid week. However, despite the increasing deep layered moisture, dry layers persist through the lower levels and surface dew points struggle to push above 70. In addition, the lower level flow is expected to largely remain unidirectional or slightly backing. With that said, it would not take much shifting for the environment to be more convectively supportive. It is a bit early to narrow down the specifics and will maintain currently advertised slight chance PoPs. && .MARINE... Issued at 323 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 High pressure straddling the Florida Peninsula will build eastward into the Atlantic through the weekend and into early next week. As a result, winds will be predominantly light to gentle out of the east. Winds will likely pick up moderately late this weekend as the high shifts further east. Through the first half of the week, the flow will generally become light due to troughing along the Atlantic coast and the Atlantic ridge off to the east. A backdoor cold front may sag into Keys waters by mid week, resulting in modestly freshening northeasterlies. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 323 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Light northeast winds will gradually become northeast to east later this morning. Dry air and mostly clear skies are expected through the afternoon. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2024, the daily record rainfall of 2.69" was recorded in Marathon. Marathon precipitation records date back to 1950. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest