Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
703 FXUS62 KKEY 160229 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1029 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Currently - A deep layered trough is riding eastward through the eastern United States this evening. This is resulting in an associated surface low near the New England coast with a trough extending southwestward through the southeastern United States. This low has nudged the Atlantic ridge southward across Cuba. The combination of the above has resulted in a nebulous wind field across the Keys. Meanwhile, modest confluence has setup across our broader area, but is maximized across Central Florida and well north our area. While a few showers were able to percolate in the eastern Lower Keys earlier this afternoon, all more recent activity has been located along the confluent zone far to the north. More recently, this activity has been trending downwards but is still sagging slowly southwards. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned low will meander of the coast while the attached surface trough pivots slightly eastward off the southeast coast. As a result, the surface ridge will remain across Cuba. As day time effects wear off, expect winds to firm up modestly out of the south to southwest. The best low level confluence is expected to remain to our north. The Keys will remain within the southern fringes of this confluent flow, but also not far away from the lower level ridge axis. Forecast soundings suggest some low level inhibition will persist. Taken together, along with the current activity in the southeast gulf, a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms is justified. The increasing flow will forestall any notion of appreciable radiational cooling and overnight lows should still be well up in the lower 80s. Dew points will also high in the upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 The combination of mainland day time heating, troughing over the eastern United States, and a ridge across Florida has resulted in light and variable winds across Keys waters this evening. As the mainland cools and day time effects wear off, expect winds to firm up modestly out of the south to southwest. Have only refreshed first period wind wording in the evening marine update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. Surface winds will start out light and variable, but will gradually firm up out of the south to southwest late. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest