Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
112 FXUS62 KKEY 271901 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 301 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 All quiet across the Florida Keys this afternoon after a late morning/early afternoon cloud line formed along the Upper Keys in just in the lee of the Lower Keys near the Gulf side beaches and flats. South to southwest winds at the Reef average 5 knots or less, and with the sunny skies, the near 90 degree temperatures are blazing. .FORECAST... Forecast reasoning for the next week is relatively straight forward aside from a few wrinkles. The low-level ridge axis stretches west across the Keys this afternoon, but will lift northward tonight through Friday night. Steering flow will return to the east southeast, comprised of undulations in the easterlies and periodic surges of enhanced tropical moisture. By Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, a scavenged plume of SAL may invade the profile. The wrinkles and forecast challenges begin tonight. Regional IR satellite reveals flourishing convection spreading west across Cuba along the sea breeze collision, will these Cuban boomers be able to propagate along mature cold pools within the weak southerly steering? Secondly, Saturday and Sunday may feature storms spilling southwest off the Mainland that could be enhanced by a sloppy mid-upper level vort lobe spilling southwest through Florida. Finally, by Independence Day, ensemble means suggest AL95 (over the Central Atlantic with a high likelihood of formation into a tropical cyclone) will be racing west-northwest south of Jamaica. Still plenty of time to monitor this system, but serves as a reminder, any final details to your preseason hurricane preparation activities should be complete. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. The low level ridge axis currently across the Florida Keys will shift north tonight through Saturday. As a result, light to gentle breezes will become easterly Friday night and Saturday. Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes will persist Saturday night through Tuesday night. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the rest of today and tonight. While a cloud line surprisingly set up north of the island chain earlier this afternoon, it has stayed out of the vicinity of either terminal and is already dissipating. While a stray shower cannot be ruled out, generally dry conditions are expected throughout this TAF period. Near surface winds will be light and out of the south early, becoming southeast to south by this evening. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1961, the daily record rainfall of 3.30" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records date back to 1871. $$ .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 90 83 91 / 20 20 20 30 Marathon 82 91 83 91 / 20 20 20 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest