Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
142 FXUS62 KKEY 230231 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1031 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1031 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 While there are synoptic factors at play in the widespread development of showers and thunderstorms today, mesoscale boundaries have take the front seat over the past few hours. Outflow boundaries have helped convection flourish this afternoon and evening. A few stronger showers remain across the Florida Keys coastal waters, but most of the earlier convection has now become stratiform rain or dissipated. The 00Z sounding sampled a small pocket of drier air with some meager inhibition in the lower levels, which is likely due to the atmosphere being worked over from the earlier activity. Otherwise, PW values are well above normal and adequate CAPE is still available if storms can poke through the small inversion that starts around 980 mb. Interestingly enough, despite all of the rainfall around the forecast area, only a select few island communities in the Upper Keys received rainfall amounts over a tenth of an inch. The gradient between an expansive high in the western North Atlantic and the broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula remains stronger than most model guidance is suggesting it should be at this hour. This could be due to various boundaries moving across the observation sites, as well as the remaining light showers moving across the forecast area. Regardless, winds should begin to drop overnight. While the activity has calmed down as of now, the exact timing that showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop again is somewhat uncertain. The atmosphere is currently worked over, however, with the weakly cyclonic flow and some support aloft, it can reinvigorate the environment more quickly. Hi-res models are hinting at more shower developing an hour or two before sunrise, so we will continue to monitor this. Temperatures will drop to near 80 degrees outside of rain-cooled areas overnight and dew points will remain in the mid 70s. No changes were made to the previous forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1031 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, the interaction between low pressure off the east coast of Florida, high pressure centered north of Bermuda, and broad low pressure in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula will result in gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes becoming gentle late tonight. Moisture pulled into our area via the low to the west will lead to periods of unsettled weather for the rest of the weekend. High pressure building over the North Atlantic early next week will result in light to gentle southeast to south breezes and a return to near- normal rain and thunder chances. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1031 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A few isolated showers are possible near both terminals over the next few hours, and a TEMPO is currently in place for MVFR conditions at EYW. Aside from any isolated activity, mainly VFR conditions will continue for the next few hours while there is a lull in convection near the terminals. The re-development of more widespread showers and thunderstorms looks to commence just before or around sunrise, so have kept mention of VCSH in the TAFs through the entire period. Surface winds will gradually decrease overnight, and some MOS guidance is suggesting a brief period of light and variable winds in the early morning hours. Otherwise, winds will remain from the east to southeast between 7 and 11 knots outside of any convection. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1990, the daily record rainfall of 4.30" was recorded in Marathon. This is also the wettest day ever recorded in the Marathon area for the month of June. Rainfall records date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 89 81 89 / 50 50 40 30 Marathon 81 88 81 88 / 50 50 40 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest