Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
453 FLUS42 KKEY 240934 HWOKEY Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Key West FL 534 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-251000- Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys- Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and Buttonwood Sound- Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge- Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out and beyond 5 fathoms- Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel- Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal out to 5 Fathoms- Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef- Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out to the reef- Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal out to the reef- Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM- Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out 20 NM- Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM- Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry Tortugas out 20 NM- Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out- Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge 20 to 60 NM out- Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out- Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out- 534 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Minor coastal flooding associated with seasonal king tides will continue today and tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are expected today, with scattered thunderstorms expected tonight. The primary hazards will be heavy downpours, locally gusty winds, and lightning strikes. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Lower Keys and the coastal waters west of the Seven Mile Bridge. Tropical Storm Conditions are possible within the next 48 hours. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea will move northwestward today and tonight, followed by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The system is expected to be quite large as it moves northward through the eastern Gulf, with tropical storm force winds extending out over 200 miles east of the center. Expect frequent squalls across the Keys beginning tonight and continuing through Thursday or Thursday night. The strongest winds are forecast to occur Wednesday evening through midday Thursday, when wind gusts of 55 to 65 mph in squalls will be possible. Sustained tropical storm force winds of 40 mph or greater may arrive in the Lower Keys as early as Wednesday morning, but are most likely to arrive Wednesday evening. We expect increasing winds and building seas across the Florida Keys coastal waters beginning tonight, and Small Craft Advisories will likely be required for waters east of the Seven Mile Bridge from late tonight or Wednesday morning through Friday. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be issued later today for the waters west of Seven Mile Bridge. Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above ground level at the shore and lowest elevation areas will be possible throughout the Keys on Wednesday night and Thursday, and a Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals up to 6 inches, will be possible from today through Friday, with the potential for some rainwater flooding of low lying spots. It is especially important to not focus on the central track for this system, as impacts will likely extend far to the east of the center. All interests in the Florida Keys should continue to closely monitor the latest forecast updates from the National Hurricane Center and your National Weather Service office in Key West during the next few days. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$