778
FXUS63 KLBF 170854
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
354 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A dry forecast is expected through Saturday afternoon with
  temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon,
  slightly cooler on Saturday in the 70s.

* A slight risk of severe weather is possible on Sunday afternoon
  and evening with large hail, severe winds, and heavy rainfall the
  primary threats.

* Active weather continues through mid-week, although, confidence
  remains low on severe potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

A quiet forecast is in store for north central Nebraska through the
majority of the short term. Weak upper level ridging and surface
high pressure will keep conditions quiet while warm air advection
into the region will push temperatures into the warmer end of
guidance today. At this time, 850 mb temperatures in the 20 to 26
degree C range will surge into western and southwest Nebraska during
the day today. The latest trends suggest maximum temperature
probabilities of hitting the upper 80s to be in the 50th percentile.
While not exceptionally high, this combined with the continued
warming trend and surge of WAA will increase confidence of high
temperatures to easily rise into the mid to upper 80s with some
isolated locations across extreme southwest Nebraska hitting 90
degrees.

A weak trough will track across the High Plains on Friday night
bringing some cooler temperatures to the region for Saturday. High
temperatures will drop down into the 70s, however, dry conditions
will persist through Saturday afternoon. Increasing clouds are
anticipated by late afternoon in advance of the next weather system,
but any precipitation will hold off until later on Saturday
night. &&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024


Active weather will then arrive on Saturday night bringing
significant rain chances as well as potential severe storms to the
region through Sunday.

A shortwave will move into the region on Saturday night bringing
with it the potential for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Minimal instability will keep any showers and thunderstorms from
becoming severe, however, small hail and some brief stronger winds
will be possible through sunrise Sunday morning. A secondary
stronger upper level trough is then expected on Sunday afternoon and
evening resulting in another round of thunderstorms, some
potentially severe as a better region of instability arrives by
Sunday afternoon. There is some concern that lingering showers from
Saturday night may limit the severe potential for later in the day
by creating a more stable environment. However, the latest model
runs continue to suggest two separate rounds of convection  with
current SPC guidance supporting the potential for severe storm
development by Sunday evening. With this system still three days
out, details are still being fine-tuned and changes will likely
occur over the next couple of days. Those with outside plans on
Sunday should stay weather aware and be prepared to make adjustments
based on the latest forecasts.

A series of disturbances will continue to impact Nebraska through
the end of the extended period. At this time, severe weather risk
remains uncertain, although, it appears that heavy rain may be the
highest risk through mid-week. Stay tuned to later forecasts as
threats become clearer due to these mid-week systems in the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Some scattered high clouds will drift across the area overnight
into Friday morning. Ceilings will be around 20000 FT AGL. Winds
will be from the south or southwest at 10 to 15 KTS over the
next 24 hours.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Buttler