096
FXUS63 KLBF 290533
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1233 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon
  and evening, mainly over the southern half of the forecast
  area.

- Much cooler temps expected this weekend with hot temperatures
  Monday and seasonal temps Tuesday through Friday.

- Strong to severe storms will be possible again on Sunday in
  the west then for most of the area for Monday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

A fairly low amplitude H5 pattern was noted across the CONUS
this morning. An elongated area of high pressure extended from
northwestern Mexico, east to the Carolinas and Florida. Fairly
zonal flow was noted north of the high and extended from
California, east- northeast into the Ohio Valley and Mid-
Atlantic states. The main feature of note this morning was an
area of closed low pressure over north central Montana. A trough
extended south of this feature into western Wyoming. A lead
shortwave, in association with this low, forced a cold front
through the forecast area earlier this morning. As of 2 PM CDT
this afternoon, this feature was oriented along a line from
Sioux City Iowa to Marysville Kansas. Skies were mostly clear
this afternoon and 2 PM CT temperatures ranged from 76 degrees
at Gordon to 88 degrees at Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Thunderstorm chances tonight, followed by cooler temperatures
and dry conditions for Saturday into Saturday night will
highlight the forecast concerns in the near term. Two areas, one
with high confidence and a second area with lower confidence,
exist for precipitation development over the first 12 hours of
the forecast. For the first area, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop over the higher terrain of the Cheyenne
Ridge this afternoon and track to the east then east southeast
into southwestern Nebraska. As this activity approaches SW Southerly winds will increase
Sunday into Sunday night as the high exits the region to the east.
By Sunday night a warm front will become established across the
western third of the forecast area. This area will be the focal
point for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night, with the threat
transitioning east as the warm front lifts into central Nebraska.
Behind the front Monday, temperatures will surge into the upper 80s
and 90s across the area. We may even see some triple digit heat in
the far southwestern forecast area Monday afternoon. Late Monday, a
northern stream trough, will force a cold front into northwestern
Nebraska. A lead trough of low pressure, which is currently progged
in the latest NAM12 soln over southwestern into northeastern
Nebraska appears to be the focal point for thunderstorm development.
The latest NAM12 soln has some 4000+CAPE generally east of highway
83 on Monday with ample amounts of deep layer shear. Given the
forecast CAPE and decent mid level dynamics on the southern
periphery of the northern stream trough, not surprised we are
highlighted in the day 4 outlook. The cold front will be forced
south into Kansas Tuesday then it will meander north and south
toward the end of next week. This will lead to a continued chance
for showers and thunderstorms with seasonal temps in the 80s.
Nebraska, it will encounter 55+ degree dew points and decent
deep layer shear of 40+ KTS and has a good potential to become
severe. Straight hodographs this afternoon favor large hail with
splitting supercells as the storm mode. In addition to large
hail, fcst DCAPE`s of 1200 to 1500 J/KG in SW Nebraska around
00z, would favor a strong wind threat. This activity will exit
the area to the east and southeast by mid evening. Further
northeast, including the northeastern FA and eastern Sandhills,
this area is being watched for precipitation potential
overnight. Later tonight, as the upper level low mentioned above
in the synopsis section, traverses North Dakota, it will force
a cold front into northern Nebraska. At the same time, an area
of PVA on the southern side of the low, will approach southern
South Dakota and northern Nebraska. This will lead to the
possibility for isolated thunderstorms overnight in the
northeast and eastern Sandhills portion of the forecast area.
Behind the front, which will exit the forecast area by 12z
Saturday, northerly winds and much cooler air will push into the
region. As a surface high builds into North Dakota, then
western Minnesota, winds will begin to shift around to the east
Saturday evening, then southeast overnight. Before the wind
shift, showers and thunderstorms will develop off the higher
terrain of east central and southeastern Colorado. This activity
will track into western Kansas Saturday night and will remain
south of the area, as a dry airmass remains entrenched across the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Southerly winds will increase Sunday into Sunday night as the
high exits the region to the east. By Sunday night a warm front
will become established across the western third of the forecast
area. This area will be the focal point for showers and
thunderstorms Sunday night, with the threat transitioning east
as the warm front lifts into central Nebraska. Behind the front
Monday, temperatures will surge into the upper 80s and 90s
across the area. We may even see some triple digit heat in the
far southwestern forecast area Monday afternoon. Late Monday, a
northern stream trough, will force a cold front into
northwestern Nebraska. A lead trough of low pressure, which is
currently progged in the latest NAM12 soln over southwestern
into northeastern Nebraska appears to be the focal point for
thunderstorm development. The latest NAM12 soln has some
4000+CAPE generally east of highway 83 on Monday with ample
amounts of deep layer shear. Given the forecast CAPE and decent
mid level dynamics on the southern periphery of the northern
stream trough, not surprised we are highlighted in the day 4
outlook. The cold front will be forced south into Kansas Tuesday
then it will meander north and south toward the end of next
week. This will lead to a continued chance for showers and
thunderstorms with seasonal temps in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. As a
cold front continues to push through western and north central
Nebraska, winds will be generally out of the north and northwest.
Winds may get gusty across portions of north central Nebraska behind
the front through the morning hours, before winds are expected to
calm. During the evening, winds will begin shifting from northerly
to westerly, but expected to remain generally light.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Richie