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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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349 FXUS63 KLBF 250542 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1242 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances through Thursday will be of concern. - Drier and cooler weather is expected this weekend as high pressure settles in from the north. - Heat and humidity return next week along with at least isolated thunderstorm chances. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Surface low pressure is located across southeast SD this afternoon. A warm front extends southeastward from the low into IA with a surface trough extending back to the southwest into northern and central Nebraska. West of the surface trough the boundary layer is well mixed and dry, while to the east dew points are much higher with a moist boundary layer. Instability is much greater east of the trough with SFC based CAPES running around 3000 J/KG. Bulk shear values aren`t overly strong...generally around 25 kts or so. DCAPE values are highest west of the surface trough across western Nebraska. Most CAMs indicate that isolated to widely scattered convection will move eastward off the higher terrain into western Nebraska late this afternoon. This will be within the deeply, well mixed boundary layer, and gusty winds will be of concern with this activity. An isolated severe gust could occur but widespread damaging wind is not expected due to the isolated nature of the activity. The elevated mixed layer is quite strong this afternoon with H7 temps near 15C. This may tend to suppress development along and east of the surface trough across central into eastern Nebraska. A weak cold front settles southward into Nebraska tonight. This front stalls with a weak surface low developing Tuesday across southern Nebraska. Low-level surface flow becomes easterly Tuesday across north central Nebraska to the north of this feature. Surface dew points pool in the lower 70s in this area leading to strong instability by afternoon. Shear will also increase due to the easterly low-level flow. Cap is weaker Tuesday and CAMs indicate isolated convection developing over portions of eastern north central Nebraska (Holt county) mid to late afternoon. Shear and instability is such that a supercell or two could quickly evolve out of this activity. They would be right movers and turn southeastward toward northeast Nebraska. This scenario will have to be monitored closely Tuesday. Wednesday could bring more convection to the area. The region will be strongly sheared as low-level southeasterly upslope flow increases. Appears convection will most likely initiate within a favorable, moist upslope environment across southwest SD and eastern WY. This activity could then grow upscale into western Nebraska aided by an increasing southeast low-level jet Wednesday evening. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Upper level low pressure drops into the Pacific northwest Thursday then crosses through southern Canada Friday into Saturday. After another potentially active convective day Thursday, it appears that Friday through Sunday will be more quiet. As the trough/upper low pass to our north, expect surface high pressure to build southward through the Dakotas and into Nebraska by Saturday. Sunday night and beyond could become active again as the surface high moves east and moist return southerly low-level flow develops once again. At this point though it appears any convection next week will remain isolated to scattered...with no signal for any heavy or organized areas of rainfall noted. Temperatures this week fall below normal as the high pressure settles in from the north. Heat and humidity return next week with the return southerly low-level flow. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Mostly quiet aviation conditions are expected over the next day. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible during the evening across portions of north central Nebraska, however, confidence remains low if storms will impact either terminal. For now, have kept thunderstorms out of the prevailing forecast, but this may change in the next forecast cycle or two. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Kulik