Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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565 FXUS63 KLBF 150525 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1225 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms are possible, mainly over north western into north central Nebraska this evening. - Gusty southerly winds are expected Monday and Tuesday, however critical fire weather conditions are not expected. - A weak cold front will bring potential for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday. - A stronger cold front arrives Friday night into Saturday with better potential for widespread widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 410 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Passage of a weak short wave generated some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms early this afternoon that have exit the region to the east. Move vigorous convection was able to fire well off to our north across South Dakota. However despite substantial instability across central and western Nebraska, a strong convective cap is holding tight and keeping a lid on any additional development. A dry line may encroach from the west late this afternoon/early evening with enough lift to get a storm or two going but confidence is low, though given the substantial instability any storm will have potential for rapid intensification. Any showers/storms diminish this evening with dry conditions through the overnight period and some patchy fog toward daybreak. After any morning fog dissipates Sunday will be warm with temperatures well into the 80s and some lower 90s near the SD border. Despite instability we will once again be capped so expect dry conditions through late afternoon. Heading into the evening, another push of weak short wave energy nudging the dry line east into the panhandle will trigger scattered thunderstorms again, through the best potential for severe storms will reside just off to our west where forcing will be stronger and low level lapse rates will be steeper. Lingering showers and storms will continue moving eastward to about the Hwy 83 corridor through early Sunday night, then continue diminishing as they move further eastward through the overnight period. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 410 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 The upper level pattern will be rather blocky as it is dominated by split flow over the eastern US with a large northern stream ridge undercut by the lingering remnant of Francine with a closed low over the southeast. This will prevent an initial deep low moving in from the Pacific coast from making much eastward progress, forcing it northward through the Rockies and into Canada as it fills through Wednesday. This will ramp up the low level flow early next week with winds aloft moving into the 97th percentile and EFI/SoT guidance showing a medium to high confidence signal for windy conditions across central and western Nebraska. Precipitable water values will also remain generally at or above the 90th percentile in the deep persistent southerly wind flow. Expect some widely scattered showers/thunder late Monday/Monday night generally east of Hwy 83 as some short wave energy moves up over a persistent trof over eastern Nebraska. However anticipate the best potential for precipitation will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday with ensemble guidance in good agreement in moving a weak front eastward through central and western Nebraska. QPF plumes are fairly well clustered around median values of 0.25 to 0.50 inches across much of the region though amounts trail off heading south of I-80. Another deep low will quickly follow as it moves from the west coast on Wednesday, then gradually fills as it moves into the southern Rockies through the end of the week. This will keep unsettled conditions with potential for showers/thunderstorms through the latter portion of the workweek, culminating in passage of a strong cold front late Friday into Saturday. Will be watching evolution of dynamics closely over the next several days to assess potential for severe weather as the front moves through. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Overnight, thunderstorms are expected to remain well east of the KLBF and KVTN terminals. There will be a secondary threat for thunderstorms Sunday night. At this time, the bulk of this activity is expected to be well west of the terminals over the Nebraska Panhandle. Winds will be southerly over the next 24 hours and may gust 20 to 25 KTS Sunday afternoon. Skies will be mostly clear with a few high clouds around 25000 FT AGL. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...Buttler