471
FXUS63 KLBF 071744
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1244 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight risk (risk level 2 of 5) of severe weather this
  afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging winds the
  primary threats, however, an isolated tornado could also be
  possible.

- Cooler highs in the upper 60s to 70s Saturday through Monday,
  with chances for showers and a few thunderstorms.

- Drier weather with a gradual warming trend Tuesday through Thursday
  with highs rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s by
  Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The main forecast focus in the short term will be the
development of strong to sever thunderstorms this afternoon
into early this evening. Synoptically, an upper ridge will be
centered over Texas into New Mexico with closed lows over
Saskatchewan and Manitoba and over the Northern Great Lakes. By
21Z, a warm front will extend from near Valentine through
O`Neill and Omaha. High from near 80 near and north of the warm
front, to the low to mid 90s southwest. This warm front will be
the focus for storms to initiate along by around 20Z. Dewpoints
will increase into the low to mid 60s south of the warm front
providing moderate instability to support the development of
supercells initially across portions of north central Nebraska.
As these storms track southeastward, storms will likely congeal
into a few clusters which will be favorable for bow segments to
occur. Current model guidance suggests mid level lapse rates
above 7 C/km along with MUCAPEs to 2500 J/kg. Deep layer shear
will be very strong from 50 to 60 kts invof the warm front. The
main threats will be damaging winds and hail up to golf ball
sized. Near the warm front over north central Nebraska, or
existing boundaries in the warm sector, isolated tornadoes are
possible. At this time, widespread flooding is not expected to
be a concern, although, some localized brief flash flooding
could still occur under some of the more intense thunderstorms.

The most intense storms and storm coverage should be from 4 to 6
pm. At this time, the greatest potential to see severe
thunderstorms will generally be along and east of a line from
Hayes Center through Hyannis and Valentine. The severe
potential will come to and end by mid evening. Some lingering
showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight, although
isolated in coverage. A cold front will push through overnight
with lows in the 50s.

Saturday, much cooler, with H85 temperatures only from 11 to
13C, with highs from 70 to 75. Considerable cloudiness with weak
disturbances sufficient to generate showers and a few
thunderstorms main across the western into the central
Sandhills.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Additional shower and thunderstorm chances continue Sunday
through Monday night as a series of disturbances move across
Nebraska. The threat for severe storms remains low as the best
instability remains to the west and south. Much below
temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Sunday
moderate slightly to the low 70s Monday and the upper 70s to
around 80 Tuesday.

Upper level ridging will return Wednesday and Thursday with
highs returning to the upper 80s to lower 90s. Still a slight
chances for storms as active flow exists across the
Northern Plains and Gulf moisture remains with a lack of frontal
passages.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The main aviation concern will be thunderstorm development this
afternoon across north central Nebraska lasting into the evening.
Northern Nebraska will see storm development by early afternoon with
storms moving southeast across north central Nebraska through the
afternoon and early evening. While both sites have the potential to
see thunderstorms, the majority of the storms will remain just to
the east of KLBF. KVTN could see a few hours of thunderstorms before
they move off to the southeast. Drier conditions return through
Saturday morning. The only other concern will be some light fog due
to increased moisture from recent rainfall at KVTN early Saturday
morning. Visibility restrictions should only drop to near 6 miles
keeping impacts minimal.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Kulik