Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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746 FXUS63 KLBF 152111 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 411 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for thunderstorms with strong gusty winds and an isolated storm with large hail mainly along and west of Hwy 61 this evening thorugh early tonight. - Confidence continues to increase for the potential of gusty winds at or above 30mph Monday and Tuesday. - A cold front will bring potential for strong to severe thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night, along with locally heavy rainfall, mainly west of Hwy 83. - Low confidence in potential impacts from a storm system across central and western Nebraska next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 410 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 As has been the case, central and western Nebraska remains capped with a good deal of elevated instability in place. However short wave energy rotating around a closed low diving into CA will help nudge a dry line off to our west into the region and provide a trigger for thunderstorms. Radar already shows an initial batch of convection starting to fire across northeast Colorado. Confidence in timing convection is not high as early radar trends are outpacing initial expectation for initiation later this evening so will be monitoring radar trends very closely. The dry line does not make much progress eastward this evening so anticipate the main threat for severe storms will generally be from Hwy 61 westward. Storms will then continue moving eastward overnight and guidance is showing a pronounced resurgence early Monday morning out near Hwy 281 as the axis of the low level jet shifts eastward before diminishing later Monday morning. The remainder of Monday looks to be warm, dry, and breezy as low level winds edge up into the 90th percentile and EFI/SoT guidance starts to amplify a signal for gusty winds. There may be some showers/storms fighting the cap again late in the day tomorrow mainly south of Hwy 2 that will have to be watched through severe potential currently appears low. Conditions remain breezy Monday night with the low level jet again keeping some showers/storms around east of Hwy 83. The potential for strong gusty winds will increase on Tuesday as low level winds reach the 99th percentile ahead of a cold front approaching from the west and the EFI/SoT signal becomes stronger. Temperatures rising to around 90 degrees will help build instability under the cop ahead of the front and precipitable water values will increase to near the 99th percentile as deep layer moisture transport increases in the robust southerly flow. By Tuesday evening the cold front will start pushing in from the west with thunderstorms and a threat for damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Anticipate these threats will accompany the storms as they move eastward at least to around the Hwy 83 corridor into Tuesday night, then continue across the region into eastern Nebraska by Wednesday morning. Will have to watch for any upward trend in evolution of this system closely since it is very dynamic with potential for upscale development. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 410 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Ensemble guidance largely remains consistent and in good agreement with little change from previous solutions regarding progression of upper level features, depicting a rather blocky flow regime dominated by split flow over the eastern US with a large northern stream ridge undercut by the lingering remnant of Francine with a closed low over the southeast. This will continue to force the closed low to our west northward through the Rockies and into Canada as it fills through Wednesday. Another deep low will quickly follow as it moves from the west coast on Wednesday into the southern Rockies through the end of the week. The airmass will briefly dry out behind the frontal passage late Tuesday into Wednesday, though with continued deep southerly flow ahead of the next low precipitable water values will rise again into the 90th percentile by the end of the week. Solutions then start to diverge with potential for split flow across the Plains as a vigorous short wave may break from the main trof and close off as it moves by just to our south this weekend. If the upper low does close off a surface low will slowly move by just to our south this weekend with Nebraska in the FGEN/deformation zone in the northwest quadrant of the low with potential for a prolonged period of precipitation through the weekend. EFI/SoT guidance has a QPF signal which supports the potential for locally heavy rainfall, though any severe threat is uncertain. If the upper trof remains more as a progressive open wave we may see a weaker, faster system earlier in the weekend with the best potential for significant precipitation remaining off to our south and east. Blended ensemble guidance spreads the uncertainty out across the period showing at the very least unsettled conditions with potential for showers and thunderstorms through the latter portion of the workweek and into the weekend. Will see if an upward trend for precipitation next weekend develops in guidance over the next several days. There is higher confidence in the temperature regime with temperatures at or above normal through the latter portion of next week, becoming cooler with readings below normal behind our weekend system. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 VFR conditions will prevail across western and north central Nebraska the next 24 hrs. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening across portions of western Nebraska, mainly the Panhandle into the western Sandhills. Otherwise low-level wind shear is expected to develop across the area after midnight tonight and persist until sunrise Monday morning. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...Taylor