098
FXUS64 KLCH 241135
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
635 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Almost like clockwork, areas of shallow ground fog have developed
again this morning. These will have the potential to result in
rapid changes in visibility while driving. Visibilities are
expected to become unlimited again by 14Z.

A weak, quasistationary prefrontal boundary bisecting the region
across central Louisiana this morning has been producing a narrow
swath of scattered showers and thunderstorms through the early
morning. This boundary is likely to meander through the day, but
will provide a focus for increasing convection this afternoon as
temperatures increase. Guidance has a sharp precip gradient on the
southern side of this boundary with central Louisiana an Southeast
Texas more likely to see precip and higher cloud cover with PoPs
at 20% or less across Acadiana.

The proximity of this boundary may limit fog formation tonight in
it`s immediate vicinity, but guidance still supports another round
of at least patchy fog development early Wednesday morning.

A better defined cold front will push through the region
Wednesday although guidance has slowed it`s forward motion
significantly compared to runs over the last couple of days. Thus,
it may not clear lower acadiana until late Wednesday night or
early Thursday morning. Guidance has also backed of PoPs with the
FROPA and the forecast will reflect this. Northerly flow will
increase Wednesday night into Thursday in response to both the
FROPA as well as the pressure gradient of Potential Tropical
Cyclone 9 which is expected to be making landfall across the
Florida panhandle. A cooler, drier airmass of dewpoints in the
lower 60s and afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s will follow.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The extended period will be dry and mild as the region remains
with in the northwest flow of the remnants of Potential Tropical
Cyclone 9. As the remnants of PTC 9 are absorbed into an upper low
over the southern plains, some guidance depicts some of the
remnant moisture around the west side of the combined feature and
into the area over the weekend. However, guidance remains split on
this scenario and given the complex nature of this interaction,
opted to err on the drier side until there is better model
consensus.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Patchy ground fog may result in short duration visibility
reductions at area terminals over the next hour before
dissipating. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon along a weak, nearly stationary boundary
draped across the region. LCH, BPT and AEX are most likely to see
storms. Activity will wane through the evening although a few
storms could continue overnight. Light winds will support another
round of ground fog early Wednesday morning.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A weak pressure gradient at the surface will keep winds light
with a general onshore component today. A few showers or
thunderstorms may develop over the coastal waters this afternoon
as a weak prefrontal boundary meanders inland. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible again Wednesday as a cold
front pushes slowly through the area. Offshore winds will
increase in the wake of the front Wednesday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 is expected to become a major
hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in the next two days.
Based on the current forecast track and intensity, offshore flow
in the 20-30 knot range and increasing seas are expected to
develop Thursday as the cyclone approaches the coast of the
Florida panhandle and moves inland.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  69  85  63 /  40  40  30  10
LCH  90  73  88  66 /  20  20  30   0
LFT  92  74  89  69 /  10  20  30  10
BPT  92  73  90  67 /  30  20  30   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66