898
FXUS64 KLCH 240000
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
700 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Presently there is a broad upper ridge over the GoM / Gulf Coast
States, a trough taking shape across the Central to Southern
Plains, and a cold front curved from S MO through Ctrl TX. Over
the next 24H, we will see the upper ridge shoot off to the
Atlantic coast of FL as what is now PTC#9 moves north into the
GoM and the front descends further south. As a result, we will see
PoPs begin to increase. Currently, neither severe weather or
flooding is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

We start off this period with a slightly cooler and drier post
frontal airmass moving into the forecast area. However that is
just in comparison to what we have been experiencing, as what we
are forecasting (MaxTs ~80s, MinTs ~60s) is climatologically near
normal for that time frame.

Conditions in the latter half of the long term will be highly
dependent on PTC#9 as it moves inland from the NE GoM and another
system set to move south into the area. As we get into the mid to
later part of the work week, an upper low will cut off and center
itself about the Central Plains before sinking further south.
There is still a bit of disagreement amongst the models as to how
the cutoff low and what is now PTC#9 will interact, especially
with different models depicting different strengthens. Regardless
of that, moisture return and an uptick in temperatures are likely
near the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

With diurnal convection now having died off with heating on the
wane, VFR conditions should continue into the overnight hours with
mainly just mid/high-level cloudiness persisting. Fog guidance is
a bit spread out at this time...with good boundary layer moisture
in place, suspect we`ll see some restrictions to visibility
developing, particularly where winds go calm overnight, although
just how severe the fog gets is up for debate. Visibilities will
improve back to VFR by late morning, although with forecast
soundings showing adequate moisture for MVFR ceilings as we begin
heating, particularly for the Acadiana terminals. Will wait for
06z issuance to better refine precip threat with frontal approach
tomorrow afternoon.

25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A weak pressure gradient at the surface will keep winds light
with a general onshore component today through Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday as a frontal boundary
pushes through the area. Offshore winds will increase in the wake
of the front Wednesday.

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Potential
Tropical Cyclone #9 which is expected to become a major hurricane
in the next few days. Winds and seas late Wednesday through the
end of the week will be highly dependent on the track and
intensity of this disturbance, but are likely to increase through
the latter half of the week. It is possible that we will need
Small Craft Advisories for the eastern and 20-60nm zones mid this
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  90  67  85 /  10  40  40  30
LCH  74  90  72  88 /   0  30  20  30
LFT  74  92  74  89 /   0  20  20  30
BPT  74  91  72  91 /   0  40  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...25