113
FXUS64 KLCH 241727
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1227 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Southerly winds will bring in low level Gulf moisture and help
make things very humid. However, enough capping around that we
should not see any significant shower activity. Current forecast
is on track and no changes needed at this time.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Expect a couple sprinkles or even an isolated shower with moist
onshore flow this morning. However it will not amount to much.
Were looking at another hot and humid day with highs in the
middle/upper 80s coast and lower 90s inland. Heat indices will
range from 98-103 degrees.

Expect very similar conditions as we move into the weekend with
highs in the upper 80s coast and lower/middle 90s inland. With
continued light to moderate onshore flow, heat indices will range
from 98-104 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Next week will start off hot and humid, with high temperatures in
the mid-90s across the region. Central Louisiana and interior
southeast Texas could reach the upper 90s with highs around 97
degrees. This is mainly due to the high pressure that will extend
across the region from the east coast. This same ridge will also
cause our winds to be onshore, pushing high levels of low-level
moisture far inland. This ridge is strong for this time of year,
with our heights in the 97th percentile and 850 temperatures above
the 99th percentile. The apparent temperature will be greatest in
southeast Texas, with values rising above 105. The experimental heat
risk tool supports this by placing a swath of our area under a major
heat risk.

Temperatures will improve on Tuesday as a boundary moves across the
region. Models are showing a very diffuse and weak front that will
bring sporadic rainfall. For now, we only have PoPs around 20%.
Atmospheric dynamics still look marginal for this event so, as of
now,  we don`t expect to see widespread thunderstorms or severe
weather. Conditions could change and we could see PoPs increase or
even for thunderstorms to become widespread so make sure to keep an
eye on the forecast. With the passage of this system will come a
cooler and drier airmass, which will drop our temperatures back into
the upper 80s to the low 90s.

14/Slaughter

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Southerly winds will continue during the period helping to bring
in low level moisture. Winds will be a little gusty during
daylight hours with gusts to near 20 knots, then becoming light at
less than 8 knots during the night. With cap in place, not looking
at any significant shower activity, however low clouds will hover
around MVFR/VFR for the remainder of the afternoon before lowering
and becoming all MVFR during the overnight period.

The high humidity will mix with residual smoke from seasonal
agricultural burning in the Yucatan and central/southern Mexico,
that some light visibility restriction overnight due to patchy
fog and haze, that will lift out by mid morning on Saturday.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Moderate onshore flow is expected to prevail into the weekend as a
tightened pressure gradient between surface high pressure to the
east and a series of low pressure systems across the Plains
continues. Rain chances should remain low, although an isolated
light shower or two cannot be ruled out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  72  93  73 /   0  10  10   0
LCH  88  76  89  77 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  91  77  92  77 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  90  77  90  77 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07