342
FXUS64 KLCH 290819
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
319 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

An upper level ridge has built across most of the south this
morning while the subtropical ridge is stretched from the Atlantic
and across the gulf coast. Hot and humid conditions will result
from this set up.

Isolated to perhaps scattered afternoon convection along the sea
breeze may occur by mid day and gradually move inland. The sea
breeze is anticipated to hold temps down just enough in coastal
areas to keep apparent temps slightly below heat adv criteria,
but values may still hit 105-107. Farther inland the delayed start
to convection, or the lack in general, may allow apparent temps
to range from 106 to 112 this afternoon.

A repeat performance is expected Sunday.

Monday a weak cold front is expected to drift into the region.
While no real cooling is anticipated, additional convection may
occur. This may hold temperatures down enough in the afternoon to
provide a slim amount of heat relief.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Little change of thinking for the longterm forecast period. Still
expecting upper level high pressure dome to be located overtop the
region with surface ridge situated to the north and east of TX/LA
for at least Tuesday thru late Wednesday. This off-step of high
pressure ridges should allow for seabreeze showers and thunderstorms
to develop and 40 to 60 % PoPs for these days is reasonable. Latest
round of the NMB came in with 60 to 80% PoPs on these days but
brought those values down to aforementioned values considering there
is SOME staunching of convection from ridge aloft.

A series of shortwaves moving across the northern US will wear down
the ridge aloft starting Thursday. Attendant surface low will also
shunt southward the surface high causing it to move towards
Louisiana proper. This should act to somewhat lessen daytime rain
chances Thursday (4th of July) and Friday. Those with outdoor plans
for the Holiday should monitor forecast updates in the coming days.

Latest run of guidance for the period did come in a degree or two
higher, likely due to some dry air advecting in aloft with the upper
ridge. Forecast highs are running in the mid to upper 90s for areas
north of I-10, with coastal areas hovering in the low to mid 90s.
Humidity should also remain elevated for much of next week; combined
with these above average high temperatures, expect cautionary Heat
Statements to be in effect for at least some portions of the area.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period. FEW to BKN
high clouds, remnants of yesterday`s storms, will continue to
linger across the region through the morning. A stray shower or
thunderstorm can`t be ruled out early this morning, but
probabilities are low. Expect scattered thunderstorms to redevelop
by late morning and continue through early evening. Outside of
convection, light southerly winds will prevail.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Weak high pressure at the surface will ridge across the northern
Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. This will allow for
mainly light onshore flow to go along with mainly low seas.
Through the next several days, scattered to occasionally
widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  96  75  97  76 /  30  20  30  20
LCH  92  78  94  78 /  30  10  30  10
LFT  94  79  96  79 /  50  10  40  20
BPT  94  78  96  78 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ027>033-044-045-055-141>143-152>154-241>243.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...66