434
FXUS64 KLCH 171948
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
248 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Some scattered light showers are moving near the Atchafalaya
River and Basin this afternoon. Ultimately, this is the only thing
going on across the forecast area. Temperatures have warmed into
the low 90s, but with dewpoints mixing down into the upper 60s,
it doesn`t feel too bad outdoors.

For those receiving rainfall today, appreciate it! That will be
the last appreciable rainfall any of us will see through the
remainder of the short term period (and frankly, majority of the
longterm period). High pressure develops over south-central Texas
late tonight into Wednesday which will spread outward and move
overtop the region. From here, expect dry conditions and a warming
trend for the remainder of the work week.

High daytime temperatures are already running near or slightly
above climo normals (upper 80s to near 90) today. Wednesday and
Thursday, expect a very small warming trend from one day to the
next, bringing daytime highs into the low 90s.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The long range portion of the forecast remains essentially unchanged
from yesterday with our dry and mostly warm pattern continuing. A
mid/upper-level ridge initially extending from Old Mexico through TX
into the srn Plains is progged to gradually shift ewd across the
forecast area in response to a digging trof over the wrn CONUS.
Meanwhile, sfc ridging initially centered over the lower MS Valley
will gradually shift ewd. The result will be dry and warm conditions
continuing through the weekend. By the time we get into next
Tuesday, model solutions indicate the trof will shift ewd, breaking
down the ridge and allowing for the capping to cease enough for the
potential for a few showers/storms on day 8.

Highs Friday/Saturday look to run in the lower 90s as ridging reigns
supreme before a slow drop back into the upper 80s by Tuesday with
the onset of better moisture/cloud cover.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

An area of showers is developing near AEX. Elsewhere, shower
development is very isolated. Expect these conditions to prevail
until sundown: VFR ceilings, light showers and variable winds.
Conditions will improve for a brief period after 01z until areas
of patchy to widespread ground fog develop around 09z. Some areas
could see dense fog, but confidence where this will occur is low.

High pressure ridge moves in overnight bringing about dry, VFR
conditions with light variable winds Wednesday morning.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

High pressure will develop from late tonight into Wednesday as it
ridges into the region from the west. This ridge will bring about
a prolonged period of warm, dry conditions with light winds and
low seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  90  70  91 /  10  10   0   0
LCH  74  90  74  91 /  10  20   0  10
LFT  74  90  74  92 /  10  20   0  10
BPT  75  92  75  93 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...11