Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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596 FXUS64 KLCH 260902 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 402 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 An upper level ridge remains centered over New Mexico this morning while a trough is over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS. The ridge extends across Texas and into LA. The subtropical ridge extends from the Atlantic, across Florida, and into the gulf coast which is providing the light onshore flow locally. Today the ridge aloft will gradually weaken and slowly shift west while the trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Already this morning a few nocturnal showers are moving into the coastal areas and generally dissipating around the I-10 corridor. Additional convection is anticipated with the sea breeze by mid day. With the ridge still in place, albeit weaker, temperatures are still expected to rise well into the 90s with apparent temps climbing into the the 105 to 110 range across inland areas. A heat adv will be in effect this afternoon for some interior locations, although most areas may only briefly hit the criteria of 108 before clouds thicken and showers begin to develop. If clouds develop earlier or slightly later, criteria may or may not be met. Shower coverage across the lakes may be less and therefore criteria should be met more easily for the heat adv. The ridge will continue to weaken into Thursday and Friday allowing more convection in the afternoons due to diurnal heating. While conditions will be summery, a heat adv is not anticipated at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Ridging will build back across the area this weekend. High temperatures will once again increase a couple degrees while convection decreases, however the typical humid gulf coast air mass will remain in place. This may still provide a scattering of afternoon showers and storms, especially over Acadiana which will be farther from the center of the ridge. A weak surface trough may drift close enough by early next week to provide a brief uptick in convection Monday, however this will be short lived as the upper ridge becomes centered over the Lower MS Valley by Tuesday and surface feature washes out. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) SHRA/TSRA near LFT/ARA eastward, will keep VCTS through 01z. Remainder of terminals not expecting any SHRA/TSRA this evening or overnight. South winds 8-10 kts expected to diminish to 4-6 kts or less after 01z, and become more south southwest around 8-10 knots after 15z Wednesday. Slightly higher chances of SHRA/TSRA over the I-10 corridor Wednesday afternoon, with VCTS at BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA, and VCSH at AEX, by 18z. 08/DML && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Weak high pressure at the surface will ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. This will allow for mainly light onshore flow for the remainder of the week, to go along with mainly low seas. Tomorrow through the weekend, scattered to occasionally widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Coverage looks to be best across the coastal waters through the morning hours. Elevated winds/seas will be possible in and nearby thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 95 74 92 73 / 40 50 60 10 LCH 91 78 91 78 / 30 30 60 10 LFT 94 78 92 77 / 50 40 80 20 BPT 94 78 94 79 / 20 20 30 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>029. TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...05