Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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088 FXUS64 KLCH 181625 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1125 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE... Wx map shows weak surface high pressure ridge remains over the area, which is expected to keep winds light from the southeast to variable this afternoon. Areas of morning dense fog has dissipated this morning, with partly cloudy skies expected this afternoon and warmer temperatures, with mid to upper 80s over Central and Southern Louisiana, and upper 80s to near 90 over Southeast Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 20 to 60 nautical miles south of Vermilion and Atchafalaya bays will continue to diminish this morning through the early afternoon hours, with no precipitation expected inland. Updates included new text wording for the ending of the dense fog advisory, otherwise, no changes made. Likely to have areas of fog once again late tonight/Sunday morning, with visibilities lowest towards daybreak. 08/DML && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Early morning sfc analysis shows a weak cold front extending from an area of low pressure over far srn MS swwd across sern LA and into our far ern coastal waters. Water vapor imagery shows a significant shortwave approaching the forecast area from the Ozarks/ern TX. Combined with good moisture over the region (00z KLCH sounding showed a low-level mean RH of 80 percent and a PWAT of 1.63 inches while KLIX raob showed 82 percent/1.85 inches), local 88Ds were showing widespread convection over coastal swrn LA/all of s-cntl LA, plus the adjoining coastal water...some of the activity over the Gulf was rather hefty with large hail possibly falling. Meanwhile, the other problem child over the forecast area was patchy dense fog developing. In the near term, have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the wrn 2/3 of the forecast area as observations on the past hour have shown an increase in the number of sites seeing lower visibilities, or at least a downward trend. The fog should burn off after sunrise, with an expiration time for the advisory of 15z. This morning should see the last of the rain for a while. Ongoing activity is expected to continue pushing ewd as the mid-level shortwave shifts into the forecast area and the sfc front further departs. For now, POP grids show decreasing rain chances over the far sern zones for the first couple hours after sunrise. Thereafter, skies should begin clearing as good dry air aloft begins encroaching. Despite being on the back side of a cool front, it won`t really be cool today with highs generally in the upper 80s (about normal for mid-May). Moving forward, the remainder of the sho658rt term continues to look dry as ridging aloft builds over the region. Guidance isn`t very bullish on fog development tonight, which is reflected in the grids/zones at this time...suspect that the combo of clear skies/calm winds with lingering boundary layer moisture will spell at least some patchy fog development prior to sunrise Sunday. Look for highs back in the lower 90s for most of the area tomorrow and Monday. 25 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 The bulk of the long term continues to look dry as the ridging aloft lingers into mid-week. We do begin to see a little bit of a pattern change by late Wednesday though as a nrn stream shortwave begins breaking down the ridge/nudging it ewd. Meanwhile, an associated sfc front is progged to drift swd into nrn LA before stalling. As a series of disturbances swing by to our north, we should see some convection begin encroaching on our nrn zones by Thursday, although rain chances remain rather small at this time. High temps generally hold around 90 degrees through the long term. Lows are progged to slowly inch upward with mid 70s likely across the srn zones by the end of the period. 25 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) VFR expected this afternoon and evening with partly cloudy skies. Southeast winds around 7-8 kts at BPT/LCH, variable at 5 kts remainder of sites. Areas of fog likely to form once again after 16z, with the lowest visibilities between 09-13z at all sites with IFR/LIFR conditions. After 14z Sunday, expect southeast winds 6-8 kts at southern terminals, variable 5 kts at AEX. 08/DML && .MARINE... Scattered showers and thunderstorms 20 to 60 nautical miles south of Vermilion and Atchafalaya bays will continue to diminish this morning through the early afternoon hours. Otherwise, light onshore flow and low seas with no precipitation is expected through the period as high pressure prevails. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 87 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 87 70 90 71 / 10 0 0 0 LFT 88 72 91 72 / 10 0 0 0 BPT 89 70 91 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...08