627
FXUS64 KLCH 220847
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
347 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

High pressure is along the Atlantic Coast this morning while low
pressure is over the TX Panhandle and Great Lakes. A cold front
stretches from North WI into OK and and North TX. The southerly
flow between these systems continues to drag in gulf moisture as
noted with the very summer-like humidity across the local area.
Showers and storms have been ongoing through the evening and early
morning from North TX to OK and AR. A ridge aloft is stretched
from NE Mexico into South TX and LA and over the SE states. The
ridge continues to suppress convection locally.

While the cold front will remain well removed from the gulf coast
a series of upper disturbances will pass across the central and
northern portions of the country this afternoon and tonight. The
upper ridge may flatten just enough to allow isolated to perhaps
scattered storms to work into the SE TX Lakes and across Cen LA
this afternoon and tonight slipping under the edge of the ridge.
Some hi- res guidance even indicates convection possible to I-10
tonight as the very south end of a MCS works into the region. Have
adjusted pops up accordingly.

The upper ridge remains over the area, albeit somewhat weakened
into Thursday and Friday. Pops look minimal if any as no system
is forecast to impact the region at this time, although upper
disturbances may pass close to the north.

With no cooler or drier airmass expected to enter the region,
temperatures will continue to run slightly above climo norms for
the date.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

A strong ridge of high pressure remains firmly entrenched across
central MX spreading into the Gulf Coast region through the weekend.
This will keep temps above average with dry weather. Daytime highs
in the lower and middle 90s will combine with TDs in the 70s to push
heat indices in the 99-104 degree range. This will raise the heat
risk and will be something to think about during the holiday
weekend.

The ridge relaxes a bit early next week, which could allow for a
frontal bndry to push into the region. Uncertainty remains, but this
could bring our first real shot at precip in several days and may
also give a little relief from higher TDs and heat indices.

78

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

MVFR to VFR conditions will persist through the evening hours.
Eastern sites, ARA, LFT continue to see mostly clear conditions
through late evening before cloud cover builds from the west
lowering and bordering MVFR thresholds. Western sites BPT and LCH
will see these BKN decks under 3kft throughout the early morning
hours keeping conditions primarily MVFR. Eastern and inland
locations have more favorable chance at seeing periods of ground
layer BR after 11z, therefore minimal reduction of visibility
expected. Upper level cirrus decks above 10kft will continue
through morning and afternoon while low level clouds become
scattered under 5kft during the mid afternoon.

30

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Winds and seas will remain somewhat elevated through today and
Thursday as low pressure moves across the plains. Winds will be
onshore for the period and while no rain is forecast across the
coastal waters, an isolated shower can not completely be ruled
out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  71  90  73 /  20  30  10   0
LCH  86  75  87  76 /  10  10  10   0
LFT  88  76  90  76 /  10  10  10   0
BPT  88  76  89  76 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...30