390
FXUS64 KLCH 270814
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
314 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)

Wx map shows a weak frontal boundary across the ArkLaTex, with surface
high pressure ridge across the Northern Gulf of Mexico keeping southerly
winds across the region. Aloft, a large mid to upper level ridge
continues over Mexico, Texas and the Western Gulf of Mexico, with
a broad trough over the Central U.S. Temperatures this morning
remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the mid
70s to near 80 across the area. Radar showing a thin line of
showers across Central Louisiana, with the stronger thunderstorms
further northeast across Mississippi.

For today, expect hot and humid conditions to continue. Afternoon
high temperatures expected to reach the mid to upper 90s, with
maximum heat index values or apparent temperatures ranging from
108 to 111 degrees. A Heat Advisory continues for the entire area
from Noon through 8 PM CDT. Low chances of showers and thunderstorms,
around 15-20%, expected this afternoon into the early evening
hours as the frontal boundary approaches. Some of these thunderstorms
could possibly reach severe limits, with damaging winds the
primary weather threat. The Storm Prediction Center has most of
the area outlined in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms. Most of the activity expected to dissipate before
Midnight, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

For Tuesday through Wednesday night, expect the mid to upper level
trough over the Central and Eastern U.S. to gradually deepen,
eroding the mid to upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Expect
the surface high pressure ridge over the Northern Gulf of Mexico
to keep moist south to southeast winds over the region. Increased
low level moisture, coupled with periodic disturbances within the
northwest flow aloft, expected to bring scattered afternoon showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. For Tuesday,
the Storm Prediction Center has Southeast Texas and Southwest
Louisiana outlined in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms, with damaging wind gusts the primary severe weather
threat. Slightly lower dewpoints and afternoon temperatures
expected, thus not expecting the Heat Advisory to be issued for
Tuesday or Wednesday.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)

The main forecast question for the long-term forecast will be the
relative strength of an upper-level ridge. A few disturbances will
track across the region during the second half of the week, while at
the same time, a surface boundary will stall along the coast. This
set-up will lead to an interesting dynamic where the relative
unstable pattern will compete against the stabilizing effect of the
ridge. Each afternoon will have the chance for diurnally driven
showers, as daytime heating will be needed to overcome capping and
subsidence. During each afternoon, PoPs will be in the 30 to 50%
range. However, if the ridge is stronger than forecasted or if high
clouds limit daytime heating, rain chances will drop.

Temperatures will be typical for this time of year, with highs in
the mid to upper 80s and lows in the high 60s to mid 70s.

14/Slaughter

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)

MVFR/IFR ceiling expected this morning, with improvement to VFR by
15z. Low chances of showers and thunderstorms around 20% this
afternoon, thus will leave only VCTS in terminals. Noteworthy to
mention if one does affect the terminal, strong and gusty winds a
possibility as the area remains in a marginal severe thunderstorm
threat. South winds 6-8 kts expected to continue, becoming
variable 5 kts or less after 00z.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...

A weak frontal boundary approaching the region today expected to
stall north of the coastal waters tonight and Tuesday, with the surface
high pressure ridge across the Northern Gulf of Mexico keeping
mainly onshore flow this week. Expect isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday, with daily chances remaining
in the forecast through the end of the week.

08/DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  95  71  93  69 /  20  20  30  20
LCH  92  76  91  74 /  20  20  20  10
LFT  94  76  93  72 /  20  20  20  10
BPT  94  77  91  77 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
     252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...08