Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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759 FXUS64 KLIX 221801 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 101 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday Night) Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 The fight between a series of fast moving vorticity maxima sliding along the I-20 and I-40 corridors and a strong 591 H5 ridge axis extending into the Gulf South from Mexico will be the main forecast challenge through Friday night. Although the fast moving and weak vorticity maxima will help to weaken the ridge slightly, the amount of dry air and subsidence in place will keep a great deal of convective inhibition in place across nearly all of the forecast area through the period. However, there is the risk that convection over north Louisiana could turn cold pool dominated and a some weakening showers and thunderstorms could impact northwest portions of the forecast area this evening. The overall threat will be very limited with any convective impacts expected to completely dissipated by midnight. Have included a 20 PoP in the far northwest between 00z and 06z to account for this convective risk. Otherwise, a completely dry forecast is in place through the entire forecast period as the ridge axis remains in the more dominant feature over the CWA. The main impact from this strong ridging will be continued warm temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s each afternoon. Lows will dip into the upper 60s and lower 70s each night. As temperatures cool each night, boundary layer conditions will support the development of a scattered to broken low stratus deck each night shortly before daybreak, especially over more inland areas. Overall, the continuation of a very benign weather regime is expected through Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Starting off Memorial Day Weekend on Saturday continued hot and dry. No adjustments were made to deterministic suggested NBM values for highs and lows as all will be meteorologically feasible given anomalously strong 591dm ridging settled over MX into the Gulf. Deterministic values fell right at or slightly above the 75th percentile, keeping area highs into the low to mid 90`s. Taking a quick peak at Climate, Baton Rouge daily records Saturday thru Monday likely will not be in jeopardy (but could be close by a few degrees), with daily record highs each day at 98 set in 1921/1922. MSY may be a different story with records potentially in jeopardy per recent forecast temperatures (records vary in the low/mid 90`s) and GPT, not likely seeing record highs as records range around 97/98 each day Saturday thru Monday set in 1953. Hopefully this ages well but again, a few record highs can`t be ruled out, especially for MSY. Regardless of actual highs, increasing low/mid 70 Td return flow will yield increasing heat indicies. Max heat indicies in the 100`s can be expected pretty much areawide Saturday and Sunday, with Monday looking like the warmest day as some areas tap close to 105- 106. Messaging remains focused on those spending time outdoors for extended periods to take precautions against the heat. While not excessive, can be strenuous and don`t want people to be caught off guard especially since these temperatures coming up are the hottest seen since last year`s record stretch. Next focus was on rain chances Monday, as we`ve been advertising the chance for an isolated shower or two. Did back down PoPs ever so slightly given antecedent environmental dry tropospheric airmass in place, yielding a strong subsidence inversion aloft. Regardless of ample surface warming/mixing, should struggle to attain distinct shower chances especially given lack of large-scale dynamic lift (situated to our north). Beyond however going into Tuesday, rain chances will likely bump up more as a front approaches the area, providing more lift and eroding the in place inversion to support scattered showers. Thankfully, this will likely back the heat down some underneath mostly cloudy skies. Will keep an eye on it. KLG && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Most of the terminals are VFR with a few at just barely MVFR due to some lower a scattered cloud deck. MCB may briefly experience some lower vis due to light patchy fog, but other than that, the forecast is benign with light southerly/southeasterly winds. -BL && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Little change in the overall pattern is expected through the upcoming holiday weekend with south-southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots expected to continue through Saturday. Seas of 1 to 3 feet will accompany these winds. A bit of an increase in gradient flow to 15 to 20 knots is expected on Sunday as a stronger low pressure passes to the north of the area. Seas will respond to these stronger winds and increase to up to 5 feet in the offshore waters. By Monday, winds will relax back to 10 to 15 knots as high pressure becomes more dominant once again. Outside of Sunday, no significant concerns to the boating community are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 68 90 70 92 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 72 91 74 93 / 10 0 0 0 ASD 71 89 73 91 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 74 89 76 90 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 73 86 75 88 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 70 86 73 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....KLG AVIATION...BL MARINE...PG