700
FXUS64 KLIX 230437 AAB
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1137 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...NEW AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Ridging continues to dominate the area for the most part with dry
conditions expect. The only exception to this will be tonight in
the northwestern part of the forecast area due some weakening of
the ridge possible because of a weak developing shortwave pushing
through OK into AR then west MS/north LA bringing a potential
threat of showers/storms. There is already convection ongoing in
southeast OK so expect it to move east/southeast later tonight but
confidence of it actually reaching our area isn`t as high in
terms of it reaching the SW MS counties of the CWA since the
environmental support is not great over our area with plenty of
capping. Any chances of showers/storms should be over by the time
we get into late hours tonight. Other than this, dry and quiet
conditions are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024
The area will still under the influence of a slow building ridge
through the weekend and Memorial Day, with high temperatures
reaching into the low to mid 90s through Monday. When including
the humidity, we could see heat index values at the peak of the
day on the long weekend in the upper 90s/low 100s.
Most areas will be anomalous warm with a few spots threatening
the records, particularly New Orleans.

Here are a few reminders for heat safety this weekend:
-Take frequent breaks inside with A/C or in shade if the former is
 not available
-stay hydrated, drink plenty of fluids
-dress with light colored and loose clothing
-don`t leave children or pets in the car
-avoid activities especially in the heat of mid day
-know the signs of heat illness

Starting Tuesday, we have a nearby front that will approach from
the north, so building clouds off of that on top of some low rain
chances (20-30%ish) that will help dampen the heat slightly and
bring our next chances of rain. We`ll be in a more zonal flow
pattern for the first part of the week. -BL

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions through the cycle outside of some potential fog for
MCB an hour or so before sunrise this morning. Fog should
dissipate shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, light southerly winds
can be expected. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024
Fairly benign weather continues for the coastal waters. Winds and
waves will remain fairly light onshore flow with the exception of
parts of Sunday and Monday may see some winds at around 15 to 20
knots so small craft exercise caution headline may be needed then.
After this, the winds will become light again for the rest of
next week. -BL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  68  88  70 /   0  10  10   0
BTR  91  74  93  75 /  10  10   0   0
ASD  88  71  90  73 /   0  10   0   0
MSY  88  74  90  76 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  85  71  87  74 /   0  10   0   0
PQL  88  69  88  72 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...BL