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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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942 FXUS64 KLIX 280914 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 414 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Upper ridging building eastward early this morning, but is elongated northeast to southwest from Baja California to Texas to Arkansas, instead of the east-west formation that has been forecasted. Additionally, at least for now, it doesn`t appear to be as strong as forecast, with 500 mb heights around 5900m. A shear axis or weak trough extended from the Carolinas to near Mobile to the western Gulf of Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms have been firing along this axis, producing locally heavy rainfall, primarily south of Interstate 10. Early morning temperatures ranged from the mid 70s to lower 80s with dew points primarily in the mid and upper 70s. Not to sound repetitive or anything, but the short term forecast issues are thunderstorm chances and heat related issues. There isn`t going to be a lot of movement of the shear axis over the next 36 hours. The ridge just to the northwest is forecast to strengthen a bit while the shear axis weakens. Precipitable water values had dropped off to around 1.7 inches or so Thursday afternoon, are forecast to recover to 1.9 to 2.0 today and 2.0 to 2.25 on Saturday. With convective temperatures forecast in the lower 90s, it will probably take until early afternoon for convection to initiate once the current activity dissipates. Storms should weaken over land during the early evening, before we start seeing storms in the marine areas overnight. On Saturday, convective temperatures aren`t much different, perhaps 1-2 degrees warmer, so once again, most of the storms should occur in the afternoon hours over land. While instantaneous coverage of storms either day probably won`t get a great deal above 30-40 percent, over the daylight hours as a whole, probably 60 to 70 percent of people will see measurable rain at some point, with the exception of the far northwest portion of the area under the building ridge. That being said, have undercut the NBM PoPs a bit. With somewhat better afternoon areal coverage of storms today, we may fall just short of yesterday`s high temperatures, although lower to middle 90s appears to be a good bet. Forecast heat indices are expected to remain below Heat Advisory criteria (108F) today. With the upper ridge strengthening and shear axis weakening tomorrow, that should allow high temperatures a degree or two warmer. Forecast guidance also indicates dew points 1-2F higher on Saturday. A Heat Advisory issuance appears to be more probable for Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Upper ridging does eventually force the shear axis out of the area by Sunday as it consolidates just to the west of the area near the Texas-Oklahoma border. It then builds east and eventually stretches along the Interstate 20 corridor for the middle and end of next week. Moisture levels remain rather high, with precipitable water values remaining near or above 2 inches and surface dew points generally in the mid and upper 70s. That will generally mean daily thunderstorm development during the diurnally favored cycle of during the afternoon over land, and late night over marine areas. With daytime high temperatures continuing to be in the mid 90s in much of the area, Heat Advisories will probably be necessary Sunday and for several days beyond, at least. Didn`t make many adjustments to NBM deterministic temperature forecasts other than to bump up overnight lows a degree or so. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Lingering convection across the southshore causing the VCTS at NEW and MSY should slowly progress westward and weaken throughout the night. Convection should refire during the afternoon along the SE LA coast and move northward throughout the rest of the day. Confidence in exactly where storms form is uncertain due to the pop-up nature of the storms, so only VCTS wording has been mentioned in the TAFs. The convection should taper off around 0-3z as the sun goes down. Outside of convection, VFR conditions will prevail at all sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 With high pressure generally over the area, a generally light wind regime is expected. The main concerns for mariners will continue to be thunderstorms, especially during the overnight and early morning hours. Additionally, the very rich low level moisture and light winds through the column would lead to a potential for waterspouts during the late night and morning hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 92 74 92 74 / 50 20 60 10 BTR 96 79 96 78 / 70 20 60 10 ASD 93 78 94 77 / 70 40 70 10 MSY 92 80 94 80 / 80 30 70 10 GPT 92 78 92 78 / 60 40 70 20 PQL 94 78 95 77 / 60 50 60 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...JZ MARINE...RW