Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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717 FXUS64 KLIX 181532 AAB AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1032 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 ...NEW UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1022 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Locally, convection continues to drift eastward generally offshore. The latest infrared satellite imagery shows cloud tops warming quickly with the convective complex over the Gulf. Indeed, rainfall rates and overall decay of the MCS has been the trend of the last hour or two. One small cluster of storms still resides over Terrebonne Bay at the time of this discussion. This too should decrease overtime as much of the forcing continues downstream. So far, CAMs have done well capturing the exit of the convection...so will allow them to lead the POP/QPF near term through early afternoon. Outside of this, no real adjustments were made in the midpoint outside of dropping the FFA as well as adding fog overnight tonight in the fog favored spots across MS and the FL Parishes of LA. With the wet soils think radiation fog may develop, especially if we clear out overnight. That would be the main limiting factor, which is still pretty low confidence...so we`ll mention patchy fog for now until a stronger signal is realized between now and Sunday AM. (Frye) && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Frontal boundary, such as it is, is likely somewhere near or south of a Hattiesburg to Baton Rouge to Lake Charles line. Dew points south of that line are well into the 70s, while in the 60s to the north. Most of the strong thunderstorms remain over the Gulf of Mexico this morning, but there is a band of storms over the Gulf to the south of Lake Charles, that if they continue their current northeastward movement, could produce a training scenario producing heavy rainfall over portions of the Flood Watch area over the next 6 hours. Precipitable water value on the special 03Z LIX sounding was still 1.87 inches, so heavy rainfall still a concern. For this reason, plan to hold onto the watch until expiration, unless rain moves out of the area sooner. Pretty much all guidance has rain moving offshore in the 15z-18z window or sooner with the trough axis shifting to the east of the area. May take until late afternoon or early evening to completely clear, however. Beyond sunset this evening, the only real concern for the remainder of the short term forecast period will be the potential for some patchy radiation type fog around sunrise Sunday. The rather wet ground may aid in the development of a cumulus field across the area on Sunday, but shouldn`t have a major impact on temperatures. As temperature guidance is fairly well clustered, won`t depart from the NBM numbers. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Upper ridging that will move from northern Mexico into Texas on Sunday will continue to work eastward into the Lower Mississippi River Valley at midweek, and remain over the northern Gulf through the end of the week. A shortwave may suppress it somewhat southward by Thursday or Friday, but it still appears that significant precipitation will be hard to come by through the end of the work week next week after this morning`s rain. Unlikely to be much in the way of change in temperatures from day to day during the workweek, with readings generally 3 to 5 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Convection this morning will lead to brief reductions in VIS/CIG. MVFR conditions will be possible during this time. This activity will move out from west to east with convection moving out of the GPT area by mid morning or so. Beyond this VFR conditions are anticipated through the rest of today and into tonight. Will need to watch for low stratus/fog developing overnight tonight, especially over the fog favored terminals such as MCB and HUM. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Will cancel the Small Craft Advisory with forecast issuance, as any winds greater than 15 knots or so will be convectively related this morning. Thunderstorms should even move out of the coastal waters later today or this evening. Beyond today, winds are likely to remain below 15 knots through much or all of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 84 65 89 66 / 10 10 0 0 BTR 89 70 93 72 / 10 0 0 0 ASD 86 69 92 69 / 80 0 0 0 MSY 85 72 90 74 / 90 0 0 0 GPT 82 69 90 70 / 90 10 0 0 PQL 84 68 92 67 / 90 10 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for LAZ036-037-039-046>048-071- 083-085. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RW