Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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441 FXUS64 KLIX 251857 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 157 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 An upper level ridge centered over Mexico just west of the Bay of Campeche will continue to be expanded northeast across the Gulf States through Sunday. This will maintain hot temps and little to no rainfall for now. Last night lows were near records, not even below 80 degrees in some locations. For highs, today and Memorial Day will be HOT with temperatures reaching well into the mid 90s. That`ll be right at records for some areas. Although heat indices will be several degrees below heat advisory criteria Sunday, Monday may not be quite that lucky. Increasing southerly flow ahead of a front slowly approaching from the north. That`ll help to bring dewpoints up in the mid 70s. With highs still in the mid 90s, latest forecast peak heat index values are 105-107. So, may be issuing our first heat advisory of the year on Memorial Day. MEFFER && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday night) Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 After a hot and generally dry Memorial Day weekend, temperatures will be trending back down some next week. Although we likely won`t get down to normal temps, at least shouldn`t be flirting with record highs. These cooler temps come thanks to an upper level trough early next week. Models show a cutoff low dropping south out of Canada as a shortwave trough passes across the upper MS Valley on Monday. The merging of these 2 features will aide in the southward progression of the associated cooler airmass. Although its still uncertain how far south the cold front will reach, the trough will suppress ridging aloft which will do 2 things midweek onward: bring down temps by a few to maybe several degrees and allow for scattered convection to develop. MEFFER && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Low/mid level CU field will continue through the rest of today with MVFR becoming VFR as decks lift this afternoon. MVFR conditions will return for most terminals as lower level clouds redevelop overnight. The potential for fog isn`t particularly high, but KMCB could see LIFR visibilities around sunrise Sunday. MEFFER && .MARINE... Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Surface high pressure is currently centered just north of the Bahamas and extends westward across the entire Gulf of Mexico. Through this weekend, gradient flow around that ridge will keep local winds blowing south to southwestward. As a surface low tracks east across the Central Plains tonight into Sunday with cause the local pressure gradient to tighten. Winds will respond by increasing from closer to 10 knots to more in Exercise Caution speeds of 15 to 20 knots for 12 hours or so. A cold front associated with that surface low will attempt to push into the Gulf but will likely stall before doing so. That`ll break down the wind field by quite a bit mid week. MEFFER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 73 91 73 92 / 0 0 10 20 BTR 79 94 79 96 / 0 0 0 20 ASD 78 92 78 94 / 0 0 0 20 MSY 81 91 81 94 / 0 0 0 20 GPT 79 89 79 91 / 0 0 0 30 PQL 74 90 74 92 / 0 0 0 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...ME MARINE...ME