733
FXUS65 KLKN 202101
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
201 PM PDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Persistent high presure over the Pacific Ocean keeps
northwesterly flow over the intermountain west into the weekend.
Distrurbances moving thru the flow provide unsettled weather
conditions with low probabilities for showers and thunderstroms
at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms present this afternoon across
the eastern half of the forecast area will dissipate thru the
evening as the associated upper trof continues to move east out of
the forecast area. Northwest breezes also dissipate with winds
becoming mostly variable and light tonight. Biggest concern
tonight will be for cold low temperatures with lows in the mid 20s
to mid 30s.

Northwesterly flow over the region Tuesday in wake of the exiting
trof with a weak transient shortwave ridge traversing the
forecast area. Fairer weather will be in store with dry conditions
expected under mostly sunny skies. Light to breezy northwesterly
afternoon winds with gusts 15 to 20 mph are also expected. Cloud
cover increases Tuesday evening from the northwest as the next
upper low and surface cold front begin to move into northern
Nevada from the northwest the latter half of the night, bringing
light rain showers into the area before sunrise Wednesday. Look
for daytime high temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s with
overnight lows mostly in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Sunday.

The next upper level low pressure system will dive to the south
from the north, impacting the area on Wednesday. Strong winds are
expected to develop in the late morning and early afternoon hours.
West to southwest winds will be windy with speeds of 20 to 30 mph
and gusts of 40 to 50 mph. The direction will shift to the
northwest by the evening hours. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s.
Chances for showers will be highest in portions of northern Elko
county with amounts of less than 0.10". The upper low will shift
east during the overnight and exit the region, with chances for
showers ending. Overnight lows will be in the 30s.

Northwest flow with pieces of energy will move through from time
to time through the area. At this time, chances for precipitation
will be on the low side with little to no accumulation for
Thursday and Friday. Winds will be breezy each afternoon with
gusts to 20 mph. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the
30s Friday morning and 40s by Saturday morning.

Model solutions are depicting another upper trough for the
upcoming weekend. This will bring probability of precipitation to
the region though probabilities will be low at 20% or less.
West/northwest afternoon breezes also remain in place. Main
weather item will be temperatures continuing to remain at or below
normal, depending on the path of the trough.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Expect
any evening showers tonight to dissipate with clearing from west
to east. Winds for Tuesday will be light, though afternoon NW
breezes to 25KT are possible at the KTPH terminal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Quiet and dry weather tonight as showers and
isolated thunderstorms present across eastern Nevada zones
dissipate this evening. Dry and fair weather continue Tuesday but
clouds will increase from the northwest Tuesday evening ahead of
the next upper low and surface cold front that are expected to
move into northern Nevada the latter half of Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...As high elevation spring snowmelt continues, many
streams and creeks coming off snow covered terrain will experience
elevated flows.

Wildhorse Reservoir, Lamoille Creek, and the Jarbidge River near
Jarbidge are all currently at or near action stage, and are
expected to remain at elevated levels over the coming days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

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