Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
333 FXUS65 KLKN 180853 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 153 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS...The second of two low pressure systems will impact the Silver State over the next 48 hours. A low pressure center will move down the west coast into northern California Wednesday into Thursday. Accumulating rainfall from this second storm will be less widespread and mainly in western portions of the region. Quarter to half inch rain accumulations are possible in northwestern Nye, Lander, and Eureka counties Wednesday morning. Shower and storm chances will increase into northern Nevada Wednesday afternoon under mostly cloudy skies. Thursday will be somewhat drier in central and east central Nevada though chances for shower and thunderstorm activity exist over northern areas of the state. Friday morning the low passes to the south ahead of a quieter weekend ahead. && .SHORT TERM...The second low pressure system of the week meanders into the SW CONUS on Wednesday. By 12z Wednesday morning the low pressure center resides to the west over northern California with a jet streak in the downstream flow of the trough over southern Nevada. The low will continue its trek south into central California over the course of Wednesday keeping southerly flow in the eastern flank of the trough over the region. Moisture over western Nevada will combine with some instability in the warm sector of the system to produce QPF probabilities in the range of 0.25-50 inches of rainfall over northwestern Nye, Lander, and Eureka counties Wednesday morning. Despite the southern movement of the low, instability (40-280 J/kg of CAPE) and moisture (0.6-0.75 inches of PWAT) will spread further north into central and northern Nevada providing those areas with chances for scatter showers and isolated convection Wednesday afternoon and evening. Under mostly cloudy skies Wednesday afternoon highs will struggle into upper 60s. Best chances of precipitation and convection on Thursday are found over northern Nevada where some moisture availability and a few hundred J/kg of CAPE still exists. Thursday evening and into Friday the low will make its way into southern Nevada placing east southeast flow over the area raising Thursday afternoon temperatures into the 70s for the area. Early Friday morning dry convection is possible over White Pine and northeastern Nye counties where better instability (200-400 CAPE, -2 LI) in close proximity to the low over the CA/NV southwest border is found. PWAT values however struggle to reach 0.6 inches hence the dry nature of convective activity at that time. .LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday. A low pressure trough and cold front will move through our area Thursday and Friday, exiting the region by Friday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms accompanied by breezy conditions are expected. Storm total amounts will range from 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain in central and southwest NV through Friday. As the trough exits the region, drier conditions and a light northwesterly to westerly flow pattern returns and will remain in place into early next week. Highs will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s, with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals today. An upper level low digging down along the CA coastline results in mostly cloudy skies across northern and central NV today. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected mainly south of KWMC KBAM and KEKO, and to the north of KTPH and KELY. Any showers that may develop at one of these terminals today will be light, likely less than 0.05". && .FIRE WEATHER...Next weather system begins to impact the forecast area this morning as isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms move into fire weather zones 424 and 427 from the west. Activity spreads into central and northern Nevada thru the day and will ease overnight. Uptick in activity Thursday with showers and thunderstorms easing again Thursday night before increasing Friday and subsequently exiting Nevada to the east. Activity will be present across all zones, though the best opportunity for wetting rains will be in and near zones 424 and 427. Occasional breezes will also be present with valley gusts generally around 20 mph. Cool temperatures will also continue. Fairer weather expected for the weekend with temperatures warming to seasonable. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 99/EB/96/92